GF Securities: Food and Beverage Industry Investment Strategy Monthly Report, 2026 Fall Sugar and Wine Conference Tracking — Monthly Focus

The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report saying that after a four-year adjustment period, the liquor sector is expected to usher in a new development cycle in 2026. Volkswagen: Some sub-tracks have taken the lead in stabilizing in 2025. Looking forward to a moderate rise in industry tonnage prices in 2026, we are optimistic about individual stock opportunities brought by new products and new channels.

The main views of GF Securities are as follows:

2026 Autumn Sugar and Wine Fair Tracking: The industry is still at the bottom, and the leaders are relatively stable.

Liquor channel feedback: Demand for the two seasons was lackluster, and price performance was strong. Dealers generally reported a year-on-year decline in sales during the two-year period. Demand for business activity scenarios is still weak, personal consumption is relatively good, terminal inventory levels and willingness to pick up goods are low, and channel inventory removal is slow, but the price performance of all major products after the holiday season was better than expected.

Autumn Sugar Hotel Exhibition Grassroots Feedback: Overall Desolation, Changing Trends

Liquor hotel exhibitors had a quiet flow of people, less enthusiasm for exhibitors and visitors, and the price of the products on display dropped significantly. At the same time, the live wine sales trend was popular, and there was a marked increase in the number of alcohol and health wine booths; the beer fair still focused on refined flavors and there was no obvious innovation in taste; the beverage exhibition focused on juice, milk drinks, and medicinal drinks. The popularity of small-scale energy drinks and unsweetened tea products declined markedly.

Nanjing liquor terminal grassroots feedback: double section is deserted, terminal rationality

Terminal owners generally reported that sales were weak during the two months, and there was no desire to buy further after the holiday season. Currently, the terminal display focuses on major products. Among the mainstream brands in the Nanjing Liquor Market, Maotai, Wuliangye, Guoyuan, and Jiannanchun are among the leading brands in the Nanjing Liquor Market.

Weijiu Forum Feedback: Demand is weak, differentiation intensifies

Demand performance in the double quarter was weak, and the industrial cycle entered into stock competition. There is still room for improvement in leading concentration, but it remains to be seen whether to support the continuous rapid growth of leading enterprises. The future will be a test of enterprise capability rather than simply an increase in concentration.

Market review: The food and beverage sector outperformed the market by 4.0pct in September

The food and beverage sub-industry split in September. Looking at the second-level sub-industry, not only liquor rose significantly; in the third-level sub-industry, other alcoholic beverages, pre-processed foods, and dairy products rose higher. Land and Port Connect: In September, Southbound Capital's net purchases of more shares were Tsingtao Brewery Co., Ltd., Cofco Jiajiakang, etc.; the net sales of the most shares were H&H. Sector valuation: The absolute/relative valuation of food and beverage is at its lowest level since 2010.

Fundamental tracking: the prosperity of some sub-industries improved marginally in September

Liquor: Weak sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are in line with expectations. The industry's double holiday sales are expected to decline slightly year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate is weaker than in July-August, but prices are more stable after the holiday season, showing that industry expectations are more rational. Popular products: In September, the prosperity of some sub-industries improved sequentially. Industries such as the weather turned cold and quick freezing began to enter the peak season, and snack discount stores continued the previous trend of opening stores. Cost: Cost trends are diverging, and the prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and raw milk are growing.

Risk Alerts

The macroeconomy fell short of expectations, the recovery in consumption power fell short of expectations, and food safety issues.