Chip ETF SOXX Falls 7 Days in a Row: History Says It’s a Buy Signal

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) has gained more than 70% this year, beating every other industry.

It has also lost money every single day for the past seven sessions.

That streak is now the longest since May 2025. The last time it happened, the fund nearly tripled over the following 12 months.

The widely followed chip fund traded around $530 on Wednesday morning, down 2.5% on the day, following a stronger-than-expected September consumer price index report.

The fund has lost about 10% over the seven sessions and 8% over the past week. As a result, it now sits roughly 19% below its all-time high of $655.95.

The question for investors is simple: does a streak like this signal more pain, or an opportunity?

Seven Straight Losses Are Rare for Chip Stocks

Since the fund’s history begins in July 2001, there have been 15 streaks of at least seven consecutive lower closes, including the current one.

That is fewer than one every year.

The short-term picture offers little comfort.

One week after the seventh straight decline, the fund was higher in seven of 14 cases, a coin flip.

The average one-week return was 0.35%, almost identical to the 0.34% average gain from any random day in the fund’s history.

In other words, a losing streak this long does not usually end with an immediate bounce.

The Longer Horizons Tell a Different Story

The pattern changes as the holding period gets longer.

One month later, the average return rose to 3.24%, more than double the 1.45% average for all one-month periods.

The median, which is the middle result and less distorted by extreme cases, was even higher at 6.08%.

Three months later, SOXX was higher in 10 of 14 cases. The average gain was 10.02%, compared with 4.40% for a typical three-month period.

Six months later, it was higher 12 times out of 14. The average return reached 14.11%, topping the typical 6-month return of 9.18%.

After 12 months, the average gain was 35.28%, nearly twice the 18.30% average for any 12-month window.

The win rate stayed at 85.7%, compared with 67.7% across all days.

Horizon	Avg. return	Median	Win rate	All-days avg.	All-days win rate
1 week	0.35%	0.38%	50.0%	0.34%	55.3%
1 month	3.24%	6.08%	57.1%	1.45%	59.2%
3 months	10.02%	12.51%	71.4%	4.40%	65.2%
6 months	14.11%	14.13%	85.7%	9.18%	67.2%
12 months	35.28%	34.96%	85.7%	18.30%	67.7%

The Last Signal Nearly Tripled the Fund

The most recent precedent was also the most profitable.

The streak that ended on May 23, 2025, was followed by an 11.8% gain in one month, 39.6% in six months and 181.4% in 12 months.

That rally was driven by the artificial-intelligence investment boom, which lifted demand for the chips used in data centers.

Yet, the signal failed when the economy was heading into a deep downturn.

The streak of January 2008 was followed by a 43.9% loss over the next 12 months, as the global financial crisis took hold.

The October 2008 streak, the one that came just before Buffett’s op-ed, shows both sides. The fund lost another 13.4% over three months, then gained 35.4% over 12 months.

Why Chip Stocks Are Selling Off Now

The current decline follows a powerful run. Headlines this week have pointed to fears over the AI trade and rising competition from Chinese chipmakers.

Higher bond yields have also weighed on technology stocks. When yields rise, profits expected far in the future are worth less today, and chip stocks are priced largely on those future profits.

Technical indicators show the fund cooling rather than collapsing. SOXX has slipped just below its 50-day moving average, the average price over roughly the past 10 weeks, near $539.

However, it remains well above its 200-day moving average near $466, a gauge of the longer-term trend.

The relative strength index, a momentum gauge that runs from 0 to 100, stands near 40. Readings below 30 typically signal that an asset has been heavily oversold.

What the Buy Signal Does and Does Not Promise

Fourteen completed cases make a small sample.

Moreover, the results come from a period in which chip stocks rose strongly over time, which flatters most buy-and-hold outcomes.

Even so, the historical record leans in one direction.

A seventh straight decline in SOXX has rarely marked the start of a lasting slump. More often, it has been an entry point that paid off for investors willing to wait several months.

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