BofA Expects IAG Q3 EBIT to Beat Consensus Amid 'Robust' Atlantic Demand, US Price Hikes

06:31 AM EDT, 10/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- BofA Global Research expects International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.L, IAG.MC), d/b/a IAG, to report better-than-expected third-quarter EBIT amid strong transatlantic travel demand and higher pricing among US competitors. "Our forecast for 3Q ASK capacity is +1.3% y-y, with an 88.6% load factor (flat y-y), marking a return to growth after the -0.5% y-y decline in 2Q26. We expect 3Q passenger RASK to rise +4% y-y, a slight slowdown from +4.6% cc in 2Q26, reflecting robust Atlantic demand and US carriers raising average pricing given their lower levels of fuel hedging. Our ex-fuel CASK estimate is +0.6% y-y in 3Q. Overall, we forecast 3Q26E pre exceptional EBIT of EUR1,878m, implying a 19.2% EBIT margin. Our 3Q EBIT estimate is +2% above consensus of EUR1,830m (18.8% margin)," analysts said Monday in a third-quarter preview note focused on airlines. Against this backdrop, the research firm kept its full-year 2026 EBIT assumption "essentially unchanged" at 4.33 billion euros, compared with the consensus forecast of 4.37 billion euros. The research firm also maintained the buy-rated stock's price objective at 5.50 pounds sterling, noting the airline holding company is one of its "top picks." Ahead of IAG's third-quarter results due on Nov. 6, BofA noted key focus areas include commentary on corporate and leisure travel demand, capacity plans, forward bookings, fuel costs and hedging, transatlantic route momentum, as well as non-fuel unit expense outlook.