Is Aris Mining (TSX:ARIS) Cheap As Production Rises And Soto Norte Progress Continues?

Aris Mining (TSX:ARIS) just released new operating data, reporting higher gold production and sales for Q3 and the first nine months of 2026, along with confirmed full-year guidance.

The fresh production and sales update lands after a busy few months for Aris Mining, including progress on the Soto Norte permitting process. It comes with the shares trading at CA$24.76 after a 1-day share price return of 3.77% and a 90-day share price return of 21.37%.

Short-term momentum has cooled a little, with the 30-day share price return down 8.57%. However, the longer lens still shows strong compounding, with a 1-year total shareholder return of 75.48% and a 3-year total shareholder return above 6x that highlights how investors have been reassessing both growth potential and risk around the story.

Spot 36 elite gold producer stocks that share Aris Mining’s combination of higher recent production, confirmed guidance, and regulatory progress to see how this update compares with other producers.

Bulls point to rising production, confirmed guidance, and Soto Norte progress, while bears focus on the sharp multi year share run. Which case does Aris Mining’s current valuation lean toward now?

Most Popular Narrative: 40.4% Undervalued

Against the last close at CA$24.76, the most followed narrative pegs Aris Mining’s fair value at CA$41.53, which assumes meaningful growth and execution on its project pipeline.

The ongoing expansion at the Segovia operations, with the new second ball mill increasing processing capacity by 50% and a targeted production ramp-up to 300,000 ounces in 2026, is set to drive sustained revenue growth and structurally higher operating margins as fixed costs are leveraged over larger output.

See why 39 investors see Aris Mining as 40% undervalued.

The narrative builds that 40.4% discount using an 8.24% discount rate, analyst forecasts for earnings and revenue through to 2029, and an assumed future P/E of 11.7x that sits below the current Canadian Metals and Mining industry level of 15.5x. It also leans on expectations for a profit margin of 31.5%, projected earnings of US$688.8 million by 2029, and revenue of about US$2.2b, all of which need to line up for that CA$41.53 figure to hold.

For you as a reader, the key question is not whether Aris Mining hits every one of those inputs exactly, but whether the overall pathway around Colombian concentration, permitting risk, gold price exposure, and capital intensity feels realistic enough to justify paying a price that is currently well below the consensus target.

Result: Fair Value of CA$41.53 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the story can change quickly if Colombian regulatory conditions tighten, or if execution setbacks at Segovia or Marmato push out project timelines and cash flow expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this Aris Mining narrative.

Next Steps

Plenty in this Aris Mining story leans positive. Yet the only opinion that really matters is yours, so move quickly, stress test the thesis against fresh figures, and then weigh that optimism against the 5 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Aris Mining?

If Aris Mining has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with other targeted ideas that fit clear financial checklists.

• Target potential mispricing and compare Aris Mining with companies that screen as high quality yet priced for caution through the 8 high quality undervalued stocks.
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• Hunt for future contenders early by scanning a 10 high quality undiscovered gems that might not yet be widely followed but already show strong fundamentals.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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