Corn Seeing a Slight Monday AM Bounce

Corn price action is up 1 to 2 cents so far on Monday morning, recovering from Friday’s collapse. Futures were caught off-guard by a surprise hike to corn yield on Friday, as contracts closed with losses of 19 to 21 cents in the front months. December pulled nearly a dime off the limit losses, but still saw a weekly loss of 18 cents. Deferred contracts were down 3 to 8 cents on Friday. Open interest was down 11,574 contracts on Friday, with December down 25,477 contracts, and March up 5,157. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was down 22 3/4 cents at $4.39.

The government will be closed for today due to the Columbus Day holiday, with the Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports pushed to Tuesday. 

Crop Production data from Friday showed US corn yield at 181.2 bpa, up 2.7 bpa from the September report. That took the production total 234 mbu higher to 16.034 bbu and was well above trade estimates. 

With the increased production, supplies were 407 mbu larger due to the 173 mbu increase to the 2025/26 carryout found back at the end of September. That took the US ending stocks projection for 2026/27 to 1.849 bbu, 282 mbu above September’s guess and 179 mbu larger than estimates. An increase in all three major use categories by a combined 125 mbu eased some of the increase in supply.  World corn carryout was raised by 8,34 MMT to 280.44 MMT, mainly due to the US. 

CFTC data showed managed money already cutting back their net long position ahead of the USDA reported, dropping 60,491 contracts in the week ending last Tuesday. That took their net long to 317,359 contracts by October 6, mainly via long liquidation. 

APK-Inform trimmed their 2026 corn projection by 0.5 MMT to 31.8 MMT.

Dec 26 Corn  closed at $4.79 3/4, down 20 1/2 cents, currently up 1 1/2 cents

Nearby Cash  was $4.39, down 22 3/4 cents,

Mar 27 Corn  closed at $4.94 1/4, down 21 cents, currently up 1 1/2 cents

May 27 Corn  closed at $5.02, down 20 1/4 cents, currently up 1 cent