BofA Expects Novartis Midterm Guidance to Beat Consensus at Upcoming Capital Markets Day

07:56 AM EDT, 10/12/2026 (MT Newswires) -- BofA Global Research expects Novartis (NOVN.SW) to outline a midterm growth outlook that will likely beat consensus at its upcoming capital markets day amid expectations of higher peak sales targets for key assets and new pipeline drivers. "NVS is hosting a CMD (19th Nov). Part of focus is likely mid-term guides, with: 1) Roll forward of existing 25-30 CAGR (at 5-6%) to 26-31E, likely above cons' c4% CAGR and we think include c5% in some form, and 2) Reiteration of post-31E growth at mid-sd% despite cons 31-33E being a c4% decline. Mid-term growth through patent cliff (c$20bn headwind from Cosentyx 29E, Kisqali & Kesimpta 31E) is key investor debate post 2 pipeline fails (pela, DM1) and shares back at c15x 27E PE," according to a Monday note. The research firm believes the Swiss pharmaceutical giant requires an additional $13 billion to hit its post-2031 target of mid-single-digit sales growth, which implies $76 billion in sales by full-year 2033. To fill this gap, analysts expect the company to divide upside equally across three areas: $3 billion from potential peak sales upgrades for existing drugs Scemblix, Leqvio and Pluvicto; $4 billion from remibrutinib; and $4 billion to $5 billion from new pipeline assets such as abelacimab, ianalumab and pelabresib. Against this backdrop, BofA reiterated its buy rating on the stock, with a price objective of 150 francs.