U.S. Stock Futures Mixed as Investors Await Big Bank Earnings and Inflation Data

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ26) are up +0.10%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ26) are down -0.09% this morning, signaling a subdued open on Wall Street at the start of a busy week that includes the release of key U.S. inflation data, remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, and the start of the third-quarter earnings season.

Broader equity sentiment remained supported by earnings optimism. Goldman Sachs strategists, including Christian Mueller-Glissman, said in a note that they shifted to an Overweight stance on stocks for the next three months, citing expectations for robust earnings growth and a recent decline in valuations.

Nasdaq 100 futures underperformed as chip and AI infrastructure stocks fell in pre-market trading. Marvell Technology (MRVL), Arm Holdings (ARM), and Intel (INTC) each dropped more than -1%.

The price of WTI crude rose over +1% in a volatile session on Monday as traders weighed rising tensions in the Middle East against the prospect of higher Russian diesel supplies and a possible Ukraine-Russia energy ceasefire. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants attacked Saudi Arabia’s international airport twice over the weekend, prompting the kingdom’s military to vow retaliation. Meanwhile, another tanker came under attack in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. Data from Kpler showed that confirmed oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 10.5 million barrels per day in the seven days ended Oct. 10, roughly 38% below pre-war levels. Increased attacks on tankers and heightened maritime risks continued to disrupt shipping through the waterway, Kpler said.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed higher, buoyed by earnings optimism. Cell tower stocks popped after SpaceX struck a deal to buy spectrum from Grain Management, with Crown Castle (CCI) jumping over +15% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and American Tower (AMT) rising more than +9%. Also, Moderna (MRNA) surged over +14% and was the top percentage gainer in the Nasdaq 100 after The New York Times reported on a plan involving the National Institutes of Health to accelerate cancer vaccine development and testing. In addition, Humana (HUM) climbed more than +11% after the insurer’s largest Medicare Advantage contract, covering more than 2 million members, received a rating upgrade that lifted it above the threshold for bonus payments. On the bearish side, telecom stocks sank as SpaceX’s acquisition of low-band spectrum fueled concerns about intensifying competition from satellite-based mobile services, with T-Mobile US (TMUS) tanking over -13% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 and AT&T (T) slumping nearly -10%.

Economic data released on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment has deteriorated in October. The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to a 5-month low of 46.3. Economists had forecast a more modest drop to 47.5. The survey also showed that both short- and long-term inflation expectations edged higher.

The U.S. consumer inflation report for September will take center stage this week as investors assess the likely timing of the Fed’s next interest-rate hike. Economists expect the consumer price index to rise +0.6% m/m in September, driven by higher gasoline prices, which would mark the biggest increase in five months. Core inflation is forecast to rise +0.2% m/m, slightly slower than in August. On an annual basis, headline and core inflation are projected to accelerate to +3.6% and +2.5%, respectively. A slower monthly pace of core inflation could give the Fed enough reason to hold off on raising rates this month, particularly after weaker September payroll growth. The U.S. September producer price index, widely viewed as an early indicator of consumer inflation, will also attract close attention. Other noteworthy data releases include retail sales, core retail sales, existing home sales, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, the Empire State manufacturing index, the export price index, the import price index, industrial production, and manufacturing production.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will participate in a fireside chat with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva this week at the 2026 Annual Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the IMF and World Bank Group. Market participants will look for clues on the interest-rate outlook and Warsh’s broader assessment of inflation and the economy, though he has generally been reluctant to provide forward guidance. Several other Fed officials, including Hammack, Waller, Barkin, Collins, and Bowman, are also scheduled to speak this week.

In addition, the Fed will release its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts this week, offering anecdotal insight into economic conditions across the country. The Beige Book is published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

U.S. rate futures are currently pricing in an 80.6% chance of no rate change and a 19.4% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Third-quarter corporate earnings season kicks off this week. Four of the six largest U.S. banks—JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C)—will report earnings on Tuesday. Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will round out the big bank earnings lineup on Wednesday. The banking sector has underperformed over the past month, and investors will be looking to bank executives for insights into the health of the U.S. consumer. “It will be interesting to see how bank management characterizes the consumer, from spending to credit,” said Joe Gilbert at Integrity Asset Management. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), ASML Holding (ASML), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), BlackRock (BLK), and Charles Schwab (SCHW) are among the other major companies scheduled to report earnings this week. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +25% jump in quarterly earnings for Q3 from a year earlier.

The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Monday.

The U.S. bond market is closed today for the Columbus Day holiday.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.35% this morning, kicking off the new week on a positive note. Bank stocks led the gains on Monday. Automobile stocks also climbed, extending Friday’s gains after the European Union and China reached a deal to limit exports of Chinese plug-in hybrid and hybrid vehicles to the bloc. At the same time, media stocks underperformed. Meanwhile, Eurozone government bond yields edged lower on Monday, supporting risk appetite, though they remained elevated. Investors’ focus this week is on final Eurozone inflation data for September and the start of the third-quarter earnings season. The Eurozone’s August industrial production and trade figures will also draw attention. In addition, several European Central Bank policymakers are scheduled to speak this week, including President Christine Lagarde, Chief Economist Philip Lane, and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. In corporate news, Nordex (NDX1.D.DX) gained over +2% after the onshore wind turbine maker posted a 30% year-over-year increase in project order intake in the third quarter.

The European economic data slate is empty on Monday.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ($CHSC) closed down -0.43%, while Japan’s financial markets were closed for a public holiday.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as investors were cautious ahead of key economic data releases later this week. Consumer electronics stocks were among the biggest losers on Monday, dragged down by declines in Foxconn Industrial Internet and Luxshare Precision Industry after the U.S. launched investigations into both companies. Telecommunications and real estate shares also slumped. Limiting losses, bank and consumer-related stocks advanced. Meanwhile, Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, met with market participants on Saturday to gather their suggestions on improving the capital market. Separately, the CSRC released draft rules on Friday that would ease requirements for establishing equity mutual funds. Still, the market reaction to these developments was muted. Elsewhere, talks between China and the EU concluded on Friday with a 16-point agreement covering trade and investment, export controls, and intellectual property rights. The EU said China agreed to sharply reduce hybrid car exports by millions of vehicles, with Bloomberg reporting that the bloc plans to use safeguard measures to limit imports. In corporate news, Johnson Electric tanked over -19% in Hong Kong after issuing a profit warning. Investor attention this week is on China’s key inflation gauges for September. Economists expect China’s consumer and producer inflation to accelerate in September. The nation’s September trade data will also be closely watched, with economists projecting export and import growth to remain strong.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index was closed today for the Sports Day holiday. Japanese financial markets will reopen on Tuesday.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Chip and AI infrastructure stocks edged lower in pre-market trading. Marvell Technology (MRVL), Arm Holdings (ARM), and Intel (INTC) each fell more than -1%.

Micron Technology (MU) slid over -2% in pre-market trading after its Chinese rival, CXMT, announced “key progress” in developing a new chip capable of storing more data.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - October 12th

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On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.