RBC Forecasts Eli Lilly Q3 Sales Beat, FY26 Guidance Upgrade Amid 'Strong' Volume Growth

06:38 AM EDT, 10/12/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets expects Eli Lilly (LLY.SW, LLY.F) to surpass third-quarter sales expectations and raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance, as the research firm anticipates "strong" volume growth will offset pricing headwinds. "We are ~2% above on sales, driven by Zepbound (+4%) and Mounjaro (+6%) on strong ex-US volume growth, partially offset by modest pricing pressure, and weaker ex-GLP-1 sales. Shares are down ~9% from mid-August highs on Bridge Program pricing concerns, which we view as overdone given Bridge now represents only ~10% of US TRx (~200bps pricing impact). We anticipate a ~$2bn guidance raise reflecting continued incretin momentum (RBCe $89.8bn vs. guide $85-87bn)," the research firm said Monday ahead of the pharmaceutical giant's third-quarter earnings report on Oct. 29. After analyzing third-quarter prescription trends and management's sell-side pre-earnings discussions, analysts noted that US Medicare's GLP-1 Bridge program and promotional price cuts are accelerating uptake for Eli Lilly's oral treatment Foundayo, though Novo Nordisk's (NOVO-B.CO) oral Wegovy remains "meaningfully ahead" with an overall market share of 75%. Overall, RBC believes the Bridge program is boosting Foundayo script volumes while creating "modest" pricing pressure for Zepbound. Meanwhile, the research firm still expects global pricing pressure across the portfolio to remain a mid-teens percentage headwind for full-year 2026, while the investment community meeting scheduled for Dec. 7 is considered the stock's next catalyst. RBC rates the stock at outperform, with a price target of $1,500.