UBS Expects Pricing to Drive Danone's Q3 Like-for-like Sales Growth Amid Expected Volume Slowdown

04:35 AM EDT, 10/12/2026 (MT Newswires) -- UBS Global Research expects Danone's (BN.PA) like-for-like sales growth to moderate in the third quarter, driven primarily by price increases as volume growth is anticipated to cool. For the third quarter, like-for-like sales are projected to ease to 3.8% from the 4.2% growth previously, against the Visible Alpha consensus of a 3.9% increase, analysts said in an earnings preview note focused on the European food and home personal care industries. The sequential slowdown is attributed to an expected normalization following temporary second-quarter boosts in the Middle East and Indonesia, as well as the removal of Argentina from group results on Aug. 1. "In the quarter, we expect Danone's LFL to be primarily price-led as pricing should increase from +2.3% in Q2 to +3.0% in Q3 (VA cons +2.5%) owing to the broad based pricing actions implemented by the company during the quarter; conversely, we look for a marked deceleration in volume/ mix growth to +0.7% in Q3 (VA cons +1.5%) due to a combination of normalizing trends in the Middle East and Indonesia and some price elasticity," the note said. Overall, the research firm expects the French food products company to record third-quarter reported sales growth of 4.5% to 7.19 billion euros, closely aligned with market expectations. As a result, the company is expected to reaffirm its full-year 2026 like-for-like sales growth outlook of 3% to 5%, with recurring operating income growth surpassing sales. UBS has a buy rating on the stock. Danone is scheduled to disclose its third-quarter sales report on Oct. 28.