Financial Report Preview | ASML.US (ASML.US) AI Premium Welcomed Q3 Earnings Test EUV Orders and Performance Guidelines or Stock Price Winners and Losers

The Zhitong Finance App learned that lithography giant ASML.US (ASML.US) will announce the third quarter results before the US stock market on October 14 (Wednesday). The Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom, and its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines are essential devices for TSMC, Samsung, and Intel to produce the most advanced semiconductors. As semiconductor manufacturers expand production capacity for AI accelerators, high-bandwidth memory, and advanced logic chips, Asmack's US stock has accumulated a cumulative increase of more than 67% since this year.

Therefore, this latest financial report will allow investors to determine whether demand for the company's advanced lithography systems is still strong enough to support its AI premium valuation. While the market already has high expectations for its outstanding growth performance, revenue data is certainly important, order acquisition and 2027 performance guidance may have a greater impact on the post-performance trend.

It is worth mentioning that Asmack's third-quarter earnings report will be announced in advance of the US stock market on Wednesday. This is also the same day that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was announced. This combination may cause large fluctuations in Asmack's stock price — financial results will affect the company's specific expectations, while CPI will affect US Treasury yields and technology sector valuations.

Performance expectations

Asmack previously expected third-quarter revenue to be between 11 billion and 12 billion euros, with a gross margin of 55%-57%. The market currently expects third-quarter revenue of around €11.66 billion, or $13.2 billion; earnings per share are expected to be around $12.47.

Asmack also expects revenue from Installed Base Management (Installed Base Management), which includes service and equipment upgrade operations, to reach approximately 2.9 billion euros. This recurring business is important because its profit margin is likely to be higher than the new equipment sales business, and as more Asmack equipment is put into operation at customer plants, the business will also benefit.

According to the data, Asmack's second-quarter revenue was 9.33 billion euros, higher than the company's previous guidance; net profit reached 2.92 billion euros, and earnings per share were 7.59 euros. The installed base management revenue reached 2.76 billion euros, exceeding management's previous forecast and driving gross margin to 54%.

Following the announcement of second-quarter results, Asmat raised its revenue forecast for the full year to 43 billion to 45 billion euros. At the same time, the company also raised its annual gross margin forecast to 54% to 56%. The updated full-year revenue guidance was significantly higher than analysts' expectations of about 39.6 billion euros before the financial report was released. Management attributed the higher expectations to the fact that investment in advanced logic chip and memory chip production capacity is accelerating.

For the third quarter, investors will focus on whether Asmack will maintain this full-year guideline or raise it again. It will be particularly supportive if the company raises the lower limit of its full-year revenue range, as this means equipment shipments and service revenue will remain strong in the fourth quarter.

EUV orders may be more important than revenue

Quarterly revenue largely reflects equipment that was ordered months or even years ago. In contrast, net orders reflect demand in a more forward-looking manner, which may determine whether investors ultimately consider this financial report to be strong or disappointing.

Asmack is the only company in the world that can commercialize EUV lithography systems on a large scale. These devices use extremely short wavelengths of light to depict the complex fine patterns required for advanced semiconductors. Among them, low numerical aperture (low-NA) EUV systems have become indispensable devices for advanced logic chips and high-end memory chips. Asmack's new-generation high-numerical aperture (high-NA) EUV platform aims to support future process nodes to produce smaller, more dense, and more powerful chips.

Currently, demand mainly comes from the following aspects: TSMC is expanding production capacity to produce AI processors for Nvidia, AMD, and custom chip developers. Samsung and SK Hynix are investing in advanced memory chips needed for AI data centers. Intel is introducing high-NA EUV into some of its advanced manufacturing processes. Cloud computing companies are providing financial support for additional foundry production capacity for custom AI accelerators. Chipmakers are upgrading existing equipment to increase productivity and improve yield.

Asma said in July that its customers' commitment to the entire product portfolio was growing, and that order acquisition in the first half of 2026 had been extremely strong. If EUV orders increase in the third quarter, it will further reinforce the view that AI infrastructure investment is being transformed into long-term equipment demand, not just a temporary surge in orders.

Notably, weakening order data does not necessarily mean that demand is collapsing, as orders may fluctuate greatly from quarter to quarter. However, if customer comments tend to be cautious, or if the 2027 capacity plan is delayed, it will raise more substantial concerns.

High-NA EUV is getting closer to commercial production

High-NA EUV is one of the most important components of Asmack's long-term growth logic. The new generation of devices can provide higher resolution than existing EUV platforms and is expected to reduce the production steps required to manufacture advanced chips. Each device can cost up to $400 million, so the adoption of High-NA is critical to Asmack's revenue growth and average sales price.

In the second quarter, Asmack achieved an important milestone: Intel has completed certification of high-NA EUV in some Intel 18A product layers. The company said its existing fleet of equipment is supporting customer development, while more production applications are being prepared.

Investors will want to get the latest developments from Asmack in the following areas: number of high-NA devices shipped and revenue confirmed; adoption timelines for TSMC, Intel, and Samsung; manufacturing yield and customer certification progress; high-NA production capacity in 2027 and 2028; and the impact of a more expensive product portfolio on gross margins.

If the adoption of High-NA EUV accelerates, it will support Asmack's valuation by increasing the revenue of individual devices and strengthening Asmack's technological leadership position. Conversely, if progress is delayed, it will raise market concerns that customers may use traditional EUV devices with multiple exposure technology for longer than expected.

Asmat expands production capacity to meet AI needs

Asmack currently expects a production capacity of around 65 low-NA EUV units in 2026. The company plans to increase this production capacity by about 30% in 2027, and is studying increasing production capacity by another 30% in 2028. The company also announced plans to expand production of similar deep ultraviolet submersible (DUV) systems, and the related production capacity is expected to increase starting with about 130 units in 2026. Management said that Asmack is now close to receiving all the orders needed to fill the 2027 EUV production capacity, and has accumulated a large number of customer commitments for 2028.

This order visibility is at the core of the bullish logic. Asmack benefits not only from quarterly chip demand, but when manufacturers promise to build new plants and adopt new manufacturing nodes several years in advance, the company can benefit from it.

However, the expansion of production also poses implementation risks. EUV devices contain extremely complex components, which are supplied by a limited number of specialized manufacturers. Zeiss (Zeiss) is the sole supplier of several key optical systems at Asmack, making the supplier's production capacity a major constraint.

Can Asmack's stock price continue the rise brought about by AI?

As of last Friday's US stock close, Asmack's stock price was $1780.34. According to the predictions of many analysts, the average 12-month target price is about 2,085 US dollars, which means that there is potential room for growth of about 17%, but the target price range ranges from 1,200 US dollars to 2,623 US dollars.

If the market is to drive bullish sentiment towards Asmack, the latest third-quarter earnings report may simultaneously meet the following conditions: revenue close to or above the upper limit of Asmack's guidance range; gross margin close to or above 57%; strong EUV and high-NA EUV orders; confirmation 2. Almost all of EUV production capacity has already been booked in 027; annual revenue or profit margin guidelines have been raised; proof that demand from the non-Chinese market is offsetting the impact of export restrictions to China.

The main downside scenario will be weakening orders, while management tends to be cautious in commenting on clients' capital expenditure in 2027. If gross margin falls below 55%, or if the costs associated with expanding production continue to rise, it may also put pressure on stock prices.

Asmack's current valuation is based on the assumption that AI demand will remain strong over the next few years. As a result, simply meeting quarterly performance expectations may not be enough. Investors need to see more evidence that current orders are turning into a continuing backlog of orders and extend this growth momentum into 2027 and 2028.