Delivery surged 85% and it was difficult to stop the dead fork, and the risk of Rivian (RIVN.US) dilution caused panic

According to Woofun AI, the strong fundamentals of Rivian (RIVN.US) strongly diverged from weak stock prices. Despite the surge in sales of the R2 model, its stock price was still under pressure due to a dead end trend in terms of technology.

The explosive growth in delivery data became the core variable underpinning the fundamentals. 19,751 vehicles were produced during the quarter, with a total delivery volume of 19,248, up 85% from the same period last year. The company reiterated its annual delivery target of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, far exceeding last year's total of 42,247 vehicles, mainly due to the market acceptance of the R2 model. In contrast, Tesla (TSLA.US) produced 464,391 vehicles and delivered 486,532 vehicles during the quarter, achieving only moderate growth. Rivian (RIVN.US) expects the R2 to sell more than 25,000 units in the first year, making it one of the fastest new electric models to market in the US.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, revenue expectations have risen sharply. Third-quarter revenue is expected to reach $2 billion (up 28% year over year), while performance guidance points to $2.5 billion (up 93% year over year), highlighting strong growth momentum.

However, technical shortfalls are stifling market sentiment. The stock price fell to its low since March this year. The 50-day moving average formed a bearish cross with the 200-day moving average, establishing a dead cross pattern, and may fall further to the May low of $12.66. The TradingView chart confirms this trend. The high shorting ratio increased the downward pressure. Benzinga data showed that the shorting ratio reached 10.7%, reflecting investors' pessimistic expectations for the next trend.

This contrast between weak technology and strong fundamentals has significantly increased the risk of stock price fluctuations.

The underlying danger lies in the erosion of shareholders' rights by equity dilution. Foreign tradable shares surged from 892 million shares in 2022 to 1.36 billion shares, and the dilution effect is obvious. In July, the company sold another 86.25 million shares worth $1.7 billion, continuing the pace of stock sales.

Although this continuous capital operation relieves short-term financial pressure, it weakens the value per share over the long term. This is a structural challenge that Rivian (RIVN.US) has to face under pressure to survive after multiple financings. Investors need to be wary of dilution risk's long-term drag on valuation.