What Bilibili Bears Spotted Before The Slide

Bilibili just posted rising revenue, higher profit, and a wider net margin, yet holders saw a very different outcome. Investors who held Bilibili over the past year are down 41.8%, including dividends. If you had bought on 9 October 2025, you would now be looking at a sharply smaller portfolio while reading about stronger ads, AI tools, and margin gains. What did the early data miss about that disconnect between business progress and share price?

A Narrative on Simply Wall St is one investor's written case for a company, with its growth, margin and multiple assumptions spelled out. Those assumptions imply an estimated Fair Value.

Bilibili has already moved. See which of 29 high quality undervalued stocks still trade below our estimates.

The Two Stories Investors Were Weighing On Bilibili

The shares cost US$29.35 at the start of the period, and anyone looking at Bilibili then had to choose between two very different but plausible stories.

On the bullish side from June 2025, the Narrative put Fair Value at US$36.98 and leaned on AI-driven ad upgrades plus strong Gen Z engagement, assuming revenue would rise 10.7% a year and margins could climb from 0.8% to 13.7%.

The August 2025 bear case still saw upside with Fair Value at US$27.79 but focused on risks around a shrinking youth audience in China and heavy dependence on blockbuster titles like San Mou, even while assuming 9.3% revenue growth and an 8.8% margin.

What The Results Changed For The Bilibili Thesis

Bilibili’s Q2 2026 report showed revenue of ¥7.94b versus ¥7.34b a year earlier, with net income excluding extras at ¥343.7m versus ¥219.0m and net margin moving from 3.0% to 4.3%. That outcome leaned toward the optimistic case on profitability, although the cautious view about execution risk around gaming and demographics was not really tested. The evidence cut both ways.

The key assumption here was margin expansion. For any other stock built on a similar story, you would track the net margin line each quarter and check whether it actually marches toward the forecast level or merely edges sideways.

What Bilibili’s Lower Price Now Asks You To Believe

The stock now trades at US$15.49, well below where holders were a year ago, while the selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits above the current price based on its own assumptions about Bilibili’s trajectory.

You would be judging whether AI tools, creator monetization and buybacks can offset youth concentration, gaming dependence and regulatory pressure enough to make this fall an opening rather than a warning.

"The expansion and monetization of Bilibili's creator ecosystem is creating new revenue streams through value-added services (memberships, fan charging, e-commerce), tapping into the rising demand for user-generated content and the growth of the creator economy; this supports higher ARPU and margin improvement."

One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its higher Fair Value, assumptions and all

Another Way To Stream Cash

Bilibili runs on attention: your feed, your watchlist, your time.

Elsewhere, a different streaming giant faces a later chapter in its story.

Growth there depends less on new users and more on what each viewer brings in.

That business leans on pricing changes, advertising and buybacks to turn loyalty into steadier cash flow.

If Bilibili chases engagement, this other player drills into monetisation depth, raising the question of how far the model can stretch before viewers push back.

The case is on the record, with the assumptions it rests on. → See the Narrative that values this company 17% above its price

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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