UnitedHealth Stock Has Lost Momentum. Will Earnings Turn the Tide?

UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) stock started the year strongly, rising from $256 in March to a high of $458.80 in July. The surge followed the Trump administration’s decision to finalize a 2.48% average payment increase for Medicare Advantage plans, worth about $13 billion, which was higher than expected.

Recently, however, UNH has lost momentum, with the stock falling 17.3% from its high for the year. This pullback will be tested when the company releases its financial results on Tuesday this week.

UnitedHealth Group Earnings to Show Modest Gains

UnitedHealth Group, the biggest health insurer in the US, will be in the spotlight as it releases its financial results, which will provide more color on its revenue and profitability.

Its last results showed that its revenue rose to $112 billion from $111.6 billion in the same period last year. Its earnings from operations rose to $8 billion from $5.2 billion a year earlier, while its earnings per share rose to $6.42, higher than the expected $4.2. 

Benzinga data shows that the average estimate of 18 analysts is that its third-quarter revenue moderated to $111.49 billion. The most optimistic analyst sees the revenue coming in at $114 billion. Its earnings-per-share is expected to jump to $4.15 from $2.92 in Q2’25. UnitedHealth has beaten and raised its forward estimates several times in the past. 

Top analysts tracking UNH have a bullish outlook, pointing to its ongoing turnaround efforts and earnings growth. TD Cowen’s Ryan Langston has a target of $402, slightly higher than the current $379. Bernstein, BMO Capital Markets, and DA Davidson have a target of $512. 

The options market is expecting substantial volatility this week because of earnings, which will provide more color on its costs. Its implied volatility has jumped to 70%, higher than the historical volatility of 19%. Most of the call activity is at $390, suggesting a 3.26% jump from the current level. On the other hand, most of the puts activity is at $380.

UnitedHealth Group Stock Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that UNH stock jumped to $458 in July and then reversed. This reversal happened after it formed a rising wedge pattern, a common bearish reversal sign. It bottomed at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and is now attempting to rebound.

It remains above the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of $356. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the stock will bounce back, possibly to $390 after earnings. A move above that level will point to more gains to $400 and above.

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