Is Akeso (SEHK:9926) Cheap As Its Phase III Colon Cancer Trial Expands Its Pipeline?

Why this Phase III move matters for Akeso stock

Akeso (SEHK:9926) has kicked off a Phase III trial of cadonilimab in resectable MSI-H/dMMR colon cancer, marking a new indication that could reshape expectations for its immuno-oncology portfolio.

Akeso shares have picked up momentum in recent months, with a 16.56% 1 month share price return and 12.19% 3 month share price return at a last close of HK$109.1. However, the 1 year total shareholder return declined 14.77%, even as the 3 year total shareholder return remains very strong at well over 7x. This signals that traders are responding to pipeline news such as the Phase III cadonilimab trial, while longer term holders have already seen substantial gains and may be reassessing risk and valuation.

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The latest Phase III step has reignited interest in Akeso, yet the stock already carries a rich pipeline story and notable three year gains. Does that balance of risk and potential reward still lean toward fresh buyers?

Most Popular Narrative: 29% Undervalued

Analysts following Akeso see a fair value of about HK$154.42 per share compared with the recent HK$109.1 close. This places the latest Phase III update within a narrative that already incorporates expectations of significant earnings and margin expansion over time.

The initiation and ongoing progress of numerous Phase III trials for cadonilimab and ivonescimab across various cancer types indicate potential future approvals that could enhance revenue streams and market positioning globally. The collaboration with SUMMIT Therapeutics and the strategic partnership with Pfizer to combine ivonescimab with Pfizer's ADCs suggests expansion into new therapeutic areas and geographic markets, promising to impact earnings positively.

See why 3 investors see Akeso as 29% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of HK$154.42 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the story around Akeso can change quickly if operating losses persist or if key drugs like cadonilimab and ivonescimab face clinical or competitive setbacks.

Find out about the key risks to this Akeso narrative.

Another View: What Multiples Say About Akeso

Akeso might look attractive on fair value models, yet the price tag on current sales tells a tougher story. The shares trade on a P/S of 24.8x versus 9.8x for the Hong Kong Biotechs group and a peer average of 17.7x, while the fair ratio sits at 13.4x. That gap suggests investors are already paying up for execution, so the question is how comfortable you are with that upfront premium.

See what the numbers say about this price in our valuation breakdown See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Mixed messages in the Akeso story can be confusing, so take a moment to weigh the data yourself and decide how the upside and risks stack up. To see the optimistic factors flagged by the models, start with its 2 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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