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    Cleveland Cliffs Stock What A Butler Works Expansion Update Means

    Simply Wall St·10/10/2026 15:37:15
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    • Cleveland-Cliffs has updated the U.S. Secretary of Energy on its $200 million Butler Works expansion in Pennsylvania, which is partly funded by the Department of Energy and targets up to a 25% increase in grain-oriented electrical steel output for transformer and grid projects by early 2028.
    • The Butler Works project underlines Cleveland-Cliffs' push into higher value electrical steels, connecting its operations more closely to long-cycle power infrastructure demand and potential emissions reductions from upgraded equipment.
    • We will now examine how Cleveland-Cliffs' investment narrative could be influenced by the Butler Works electrical steel expansion progress.

    Scan how Cleveland-Cliffs' grid-focused move compares with other power and infrastructure plays by running through the handpicked 43 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks in seconds.

    Cleveland-Cliffs Investment Narrative Recap

    To back Cleveland-Cliffs as a shareholder, you need to believe the steel producer can turn its integrated footprint into consistent cash generation while staying relevant as customers push for lower emissions. The Butler Works electrical steel expansion supports that story by edging the mix toward higher value, grid focused products, although the project timeline into early 2028 means limited near term volume impact.

    The more immediate swing factor still sits in core steel demand, especially from U.S. automotive customers, and Cleveland-Cliffs' ability to convert that into better margins while managing debt that is not yet well covered by operating cash flow. Key risks remain tariff exposure and reliance on coal based blast furnaces as decarbonization pressures build.

    The Butler Works update most closely ties into management's broader push into stainless and specialty steels that serve infrastructure, electrification, and clean energy projects. Grain oriented electrical steel fits that theme, giving Cleveland-Cliffs a clearer link to long cycle grid and transformer demand rather than relying as heavily on shorter cycle auto volumes.

    For you, the operational question is whether these specialty projects can offset structural pressures from tariffs, competition from electric arc furnace producers, and a U.S. auto market that may change material needs over time. Execution on cost control, asset sales, and mix shift toward higher margin steels will likely matter more to the near term story than the Butler upgrade alone.

    Cleveland-Cliffs Earnings Targets Behind the Grid Push

    Cleveland-Cliffs' Butler Works expansion plugs into a broader earnings reset that analysts are already mapping out. The shift toward electrical and specialty steels links directly to expectations that the business can move from losses today to positive profit over the next few years, while still leaning on core flat-rolled volumes.

    Cleveland-Cliffs' narrative projects US$23.4b revenue and US$1.0b earnings by 2029. This implies 6.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about US$1.9b from a loss of US$866.0m today.

    Analysts see that swing in profitability coming alongside a margin shift from a loss of 4.5% today to a 4.4% profit margin within roughly three years. That margin move is material for any investor trying to connect the Butler Works upgrade, broader specialty steel investments, and the debt load into a single earnings story.

    The current forecasts also assume Cleveland-Cliffs can support this turn with more shares on issue. The analyst set expects outstanding stock to rise about 7.0% a year over the next three years. For you, that means any future profit pool may be spread across a bigger base, which affects how much of the anticipated recovery shows up in per share numbers.

    On these projections, the stock narrative leans on Cleveland-Cliffs reaching US$1.0b in earnings and trading on a P/E of 11.7x in 2029, compared with a loss and an implied P/E of 7.5x today. Those valuation anchors rest on a discount rate of 12.1% and assume that by 2029 the business can support US$23.4b in annual revenue while sustaining positive margins in a capital intensive, tariff exposed industry.

    Uncover why Cleveland-Cliffs' fair value indicates a 4% potential downside to its current price, a premium that may not be sustainable.

    NYSE:CLF 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NYSE:CLF 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    Energy cost risk sits at the center of the most bearish Cleveland-Cliffs story. Those analysts focus less on Butler Works upside and more on the chance that another US$80m quarterly energy hit or diesel pressure caps progress. Their pre news case only penciled in US$22.0b revenue and US$567.7m earnings by 2029. Use that gap to test how your own view might shift as the Butler expansion advances and fresh forecasts roll in.

    Explore 3 other Cleveland-Cliffs fair value estimates, including one that suggests it could be worth just $12.40.

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    Looking For More Investment Ideas Beyond Cleveland-Cliffs?

    If the Cleveland-Cliffs story has sharpened your thinking but you want to test different angles, a quick pass through the Simply Wall St Screener can surface other stocks that better fit your income goals, risk comfort, or valuation discipline.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.