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Prediction: This Is What a $5,000 Investment in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) Will Be Worth by 2040
Key Points
The S&P 500 has averaged annual gains of close to 10% over many decades.
An S&P 500 index fund may well average 10% over the coming decades, too.
One of the simplest and best ways to invest in the stock market is by investing in a low-fee S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) index fund. A fine example is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO). Even Warren Buffett has recommended it for most investors and has directed that most of the money he leaves his wife be put in such a fund.
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No one can know precisely how any stock investment will perform. But a look back can give us a rough idea. Here's the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF's past performance:
Period |
Average Annual Gain |
|---|---|
Past three years |
23.55% |
Past five years |
13.95% |
Past 10 years |
15.57% |
Part 15 years |
15.57% |
Data source: Morningstar.com as of Oct. 6, 2026.
Those numbers are above average, though, and those outsize gains make me suspect that the coming years might feature below-average gains.
Here's how a single $5,000 investment could grow at different rates over time. The 14-year numbers show what you might have by 2040:
Investing $5,000 and waiting... |
Growing at 8%* |
Growing at 10%* |
Growing at 12%* |
|---|---|---|---|
10 years |
$10,795 |
$12,969 |
$15,529 |
14 years |
$14,686 |
$18,987 |
$24,436 |
20 years |
$23,305 |
$33,638 |
$48,231 |
30 years |
$50,313 |
$87,247 |
$149,800 |
40 years |
$108,623 |
$226,296 |
$465,255 |
Data source: Calculations via Investor.gov's calculator. *Percentage is an annual rate, and the return uses a compounded growth rate.
While the calculations above are for a single $5,000 investment, the best way to maximize the value of any investment is to keep adding to it over time, remembering that your earliest invested dollars are your most powerful ones, as they have the most time in which to grow for you.
Understand, too, that the market could crash or correct this year or next. If it does, your best move is to be patient and wait for a recovery. There's a silver lining, too: When the market pulls back, many great stocks go on sale, and it's a good time to shop.
Selena Maranjian has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.