Is Ondas (ONDS) A Bargain Following $270 Million In New Orders?

Ondas (ONDS) has been busy. Since June 30, the defense and autonomous systems company has reported more than US$270 million in new orders, updated its 2026 outlook, and tightened its profitability timetable.

The new backlog has arrived amid a weak tape for Ondas, with the share price down about 38% year to date and roughly 10% lower over the past month, while the 1-year total shareholder return is down about 35% despite a very large 3-year total shareholder return that reflects how violently sentiment around the stock has already swung in both directions.

Spot shifts in sentiment around defense and autonomy by lining up Ondas against hand-picked peers in 91 robotics and automation stocks.

Ondas has added more than US$270 million in orders while the share price has slid and the gap to analyst targets has widened. Where does fair value really land inside that spread before the valuation work starts to bite?

Most Popular Narrative: 64% Undervalued

Ondas last closed at $6.85, while the most followed narrative pins fair value at $18.88. This sets a wide gap that only really makes sense if the autonomous platforms story plays out as outlined.

Ondas anticipates record revenue growth in 2025, primarily driven by Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS), due to significant backlog and expanding programs with Optimus and Iron Drone systems in defense and homeland security sectors. This will directly impact revenue.

See why 145 investors see Ondas as 64% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $18.88 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, delays at Ondas Networks and the reliance on US$52 million of debt could quickly challenge the bullish autonomous platforms narrative if execution slips.

Find out about the key risks to this Ondas narrative.

Another View: Ondas On A Rich Earnings Multiple

The story looks different when you swap the narrative fair value for simple P/E maths. Ondas trades on roughly 45.6x earnings, which is higher than both the US Communications industry at 34.7x and its own fair ratio of 27.7x. That gap points to real valuation risk if execution stumbles before earnings catch up.

See what the numbers say about this price, find out in our valuation breakdown See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown..

Next Steps

Mixed messages run through Ondas right now, with big orders and higher multiples pulling sentiment in opposite directions. Consider reviewing the numbers yourself against the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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