NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 9.6%

NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. (TSE:3186) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.7% to JP¥2,632 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of JP¥162 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of JP¥209b came in 9.6% ahead of analyst predictions. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on NEXTAGE after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from NEXTAGE's six analysts is for revenues of JP¥864.2b in 2027. This would reflect a meaningful 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 16% to JP¥276. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥862.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥276 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for NEXTAGE

The consensus price target fell 9.6% to JP¥4,355, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NEXTAGE at JP¥6,300 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,000. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that NEXTAGE's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 9.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while NEXTAGE's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of NEXTAGE's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple NEXTAGE analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for NEXTAGE (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.