Tosei Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Tosei Corporation (TSE:8923) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Tosei delivered a grave earnings miss, with both revenues (JP¥14b) and statutory earnings per share (JP¥10.36) falling badly short of analyst expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Tosei after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Tosei's four analysts is for revenues of JP¥132.1b in 2027. This reflects a notable 20% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 12% to JP¥178. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥130.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥179 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Tosei

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥2,125, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Tosei analyst has a price target of JP¥2,350 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,900. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Tosei's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 15% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 12% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Tosei to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,125, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Tosei going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Tosei (1 is significant) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.