One analyst expects NuScale Power stock to fall further.
However, a single signed contract could flip the script.
NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR) was founded in 2007 to commercialize a small modular reactor (SMR) design. It is still working on its first reactor. Investors are running out of patience, as September revealed. The nuclear energy stock fell 14.8% during the month, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Shares have fallen nearly 55% in 2026, as of this writing.
A combination of analyst downgrades, cash-burn concerns, and competitive pressure in the SMR space hit NuScale at the same time.
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NuScale started the month on a high note, with its shares jumping 15% on Sept. 8. Earnings or new contracts did not drive the move; instead, NuScale rose alongside other SMR stocks. The rally, however, did not last.
On Sept. 11, UBS (NYSE:UBS) analyst Jon Windham downgraded NuScale Power from neutral to sell and slashed its price target from $10 per share to $6 a share. Because NuScale was also trading above $10 apiece the previous day, the impact was immediate.
Windham is worried about NuScale's timeline. He argues that NuScale has no firm customer commitments and has a build timeline of five years or more, when rivals are already breaking ground. Windham expects roughly $700 million of cash burn from 2026 through 2028. NuScale stock fell more than 15% that day.
NuScale's financial strain became painfully clear when its second-quarter revenue collapsed 99% to just $75,000. It completed a project last year and has nothing else to generate licensing revenue from. It reported a $65 million loss from operations in Q2.
To keep the lights on, NuScale continues to issue new stock. In August, set up a program to sell up to $750 million of new stock at its discretion, after its share count had already climbed 29% in the first half of the year.
NuScale was long viewed as a first-mover in SMR thanks to an early design approval from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Unfortunately, market confidence has eroded. Competitors such as Westinghouse, Rolls-Royce (OTC:RYCEY), GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV), and Hitachi (OTC:HTHIY) are advancing their own designs with stronger financial backing and better deployment visibility.
NuScale's exclusive commercialization partner, ENTRA1 Energy, has an agreement with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) for up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of NuScale SMR capacity. However, it's a non-binding agreement, and the only question that investors continue to ask is: When will it convert into NuScale's first definite contract?
That is the only thing investors will be watching for in NuScale's upcoming third-quarter earnings and conference call on Nov. 5. If management doesn't have an answer, the stock will remain caught in a tug-of-war between big nuclear promises and cold financial reality.
Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends GE Vernova and Rolls-Royce Plc. The Motley Fool recommends Hitachi and NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.