RBC Notes Shell's 'Resilient' Q3 Performance Post-Trading Update

02:45 AM EDT, 10/08/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets updated its model for Shell (SHEL.L, SHELL.AS), noting the oil and gas major's "resilient" third-quarter performance after the trading update release. "Shell's trading update demonstrated strong operational execution on a volatile macro environment. Strength in gas trading is expected to sustain in 3Q26, with the contribution from 1 month of ARX production also supporting cash flow generation in Integrated Gas. The downstream will feel the effects of a +$18/bbl increase in margins qoq, higher than we had modeled, with Shell's margin likely less sensitive to some of the freight costs that have hit peers in recent weeks given its global shipping fleet," according to a Wednesday note. Against this backdrop, the research firm trimmed its third-quarter adjusted net income forecast to $11.5 billion from $12 billion, adding that its revision still exceeds the consensus estimate of $9.5 billion. Meanwhile, the underlying cash flow from operating activities assumption was revised up to $19.5 billion from $19.2 billion. RBC noted that anticipated buyback growth is expected to be "modest" at $3.5 billion until 2027. Ahead of Shell's earnings report on Oct. 29, analysts rate the stock at sector perform, with a price target of 40 pounds sterling.