Crude Prices Rebound as Iran Ramps Up Ship Attacks in Hormuz

November WTI crude oil (CLX26) closed up +0.01 (+0.01%) on Tuesday, and November RBOB gasoline (RBX26) closed up +0.0270 (+0.83%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices erased early losses on Tuesday and settled higher as short covering emerged on reports that Iran has ramped up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Dollar weakness on Tuesday also supported energy prices. 

Crude prices found support on Tuesday on signs that Iran is ramping up attacks on tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz.  The UK’s Maritime Trade Operations reported on Tuesday that the pace of attacks by Iran has increased in recent days, with nine vessels targeted over the last several days. 

Crude prices initially moved lower on Tuesday and slid to a 1-month low.  Signs that more crude supplies are leaving the Middle East are easing global supply concerns and weighing on oil prices.  Crude prices also moved lower after Yemeni government forces regained territory from the Houthi rebels near the Red Sea, reducing risks of attacks on shipping through the waterway.

Signs that more oil supplies are coming out of the Middle East are bearish for prices.  Kuwait said it is pumping about 75% of the level seen before the Iran war, and Iraq is seeking to hire additional vessels to send its oil cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz.  Crude prices also came under early pressure on Tuesday after Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi Arabia said they retook the port city of Mokha and other areas near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Iran-backed Houthi militants.

Another bearish factor for crude was Monday’s action by Saudi Aramco to cut the price of its Arab Light crude to Asian buyers by $5 a barrel below a regional benchmark for November delivery, a wider cut than expectations of a $5 a barrel increase.  Also, Saudi Arabia said crude supplies through its East-West pipeline had risen to 80% of capacity as of Saturday.

The advances by the Houthi rebels to take territory along the Red Sea in Yemen are also contributing to concerns about tighter oil supplies from the Middle East.  Last month, the Houthis captured a pair of islands near the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait.  That followed their seizure of Perim Island and the Red Sea port city of Mokha at the southern end of the Red Sea, putting the group in a stronger position to attack ships.  Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has pivoted to the Red Sea to export most of its oil over the past two months.  However, escalating tensions with the Houthis have disrupted that route. 

Crude oil prices have support from a Wall Street Journal report last Thursday that said the US is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group and an additional 10,000 troops to the Middle East and that President Trump told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran by the end of November.

On the bearish side for crude, JPMorgan Chase said last Wednesday that Middle East crude exports have rebounded to 17.5 million bpd, or about 98% of pre-war levels, although flows of gasoline, diesel and distillates were at 3 million bpd, or 58% of pre-war levels.

Signs of larger oil exports from Saudi Arabia are bearish for prices.  Tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show Saudi Arabia's crude exports stood at 5.28 million bpd in September, the highest in seven months.  Saudi Arabia also said it restored about 3.5 million bpd of the East-West Pipeline's 7 million bpd capacity on Monday after repairs restored the link damaged by drone strikes earlier this month.  However, Saudi Arabia said that its crude production in August fell to 6.238 million bpd, the lowest since 1990. 

The US and Iran remain at odds over key issues, including control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian President Pezeshkian recently said that Iran won’t allow freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while sanctions and a US blockade remain in place.

Vitol Group said that global oil markets are continuing to tighten, with the loss of about 2 million bpd from crude exports in the Middle East, and a further 2 million bpd from Russia because of Ukraine’s drone attacks.  Data compiled by Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa showed that Saudi Arabia's Aug crude exports dropped to about 3 million bpd, the lowest amount in 9 years.

Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, curbing Russian crude production and exports.  Ukraine attacked Russian fuel-producing plants 15 times in September and 22 times in August, targeting five of Russia’s ten largest oil-processing plants.  According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. Russian crude processing rates recovered slightly to 3.98 million bpd in September as damaged refineries struggle to come back online.

On the bearish side for crude, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on September 11 warned that high oil prices and restricted oil supply will cause the biggest drop in global oil demand this year since the Covid-19 pandemic.  Despite the projected demand drop, the IEA raised its estimate for this year’s global oil deficit to 1.7 million bpd from last month’s 1.3 million bpd estimate due to the restricted supply caused by the US-Iran war. The IEA said the return of a global oil surplus will be delayed until 2027, later than its previous estimate of late 2026.

On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to keep oil production quotas unchanged for November.  As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates on August 2 approved their final increase of +188,000 bpd in crude production for September. The group has now restored all 1.65 million bpd of the supply cutback it made in 2023 and said it plans to hold output steady for the rest of the year after the September hike.  However, the planned OPEC+ production increases may be difficult to achieve amid persistent US-Iran military attacks in the region.  OPEC's Aug crude production fell by -900,000 bpd to 19.91 million bpd. 

Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +2.6% w/w to 97.00 million bbl in the week ended October 2.

The consensus is that Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventories rose by +1.9 million bbl and gasoline supplies fell by -1.6 million bbl.

Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of September 25 were +2.0% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -7.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -13.0% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending September 25 rose +0.1% w/w to a new record high of 13.955 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended October 2 rose by +1 to a 16-month high of 456 rigs.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.