Elliott Wave Live Review: Dollar Pause, Stock Breadth Warning and Gold Levels

Yesterday's Elliott Wave Live covered FX, bonds, stocks, metals and crypto. Here's a quick look at what stood out, and the full replay is below.

The dollar is taking a breather. After a weak jobs report the market now sees the Fed on hold, and DXY looks extended in wave 3. I'm watching for a wave 4 pullback towards 101.80, maybe even 101, and that's where the bigger opportunities could show up. EURUSD stays in a strong downtrend towards 1.11–1.12 support, and GBPUSD could still retest 1.33 before more weakness.

Bonds and yields. 10-year notes are still in a downtrend, but I expect some wave 4 stabilization first. Yields broke out of a triangle and still have room for 5.5%, maybe 5.6%.

Stocks have a hidden problem. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are pushing higher in what could be ending diagonals, but breadth is weak. The equal-weight S&P is turning down and fewer than 30% of stocks are above their 50-day average. Positioning is getting extremely bearish, so a rebound can come first, but be careful with tech near resistance (MSFT 540–550, NVDA slowing near 250).

Metals, oil and crypto. For gold the support to watch is 4070–4100, with strong resistance at 4400–4500. Silver could bounce towards 65–66, and crude is looking for a rebound with 92–93 as the trigger. Bitcoin is in the late stages of wave 5 and could still retest 80–82k, while ETH is building a wave 4 triangle above roughly 2500.

We also covered Exxon, Coca-Cola, Tesla, SpaceX, the Hang Seng and the Nifty 50, so watch the full replay below.

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Trade well,
Grega