Ryanair Holdings (ISE:RYA) Could Be 17% Below Fair Value After September Traffic Update

Ryanair Holdings (ISE:RYA) just released September 2026 traffic figures that kept investor attention on its operating trends. Monthly guests reached 20.1 million, with a 94% load factor matching the prior year’s level.

Year to date, the airline has carried 215.1 million guests compared with 203.9 million in the same period a year earlier, while maintaining that same 94% load factor, a combination that keeps capacity efficiency in focus for shareholders.

Ryanair Holdings shares closed at €23.79 after a 1-day share price return of 3.52% and a 7-day share price return of 2.37%. Momentum has cooled over the past quarter, with a 90-day share price decline of 13.49% and a year-to-date share price decline of 19.90%. Even so, the 3-year total shareholder return of 57.48% and 5-year total shareholder return of 49.76% show that longer term holders have still seen meaningful gains.

Harness Ryanair Holdings' latest traffic momentum as a reference point and scan for other carriers with similar capacity and return profiles using our hand picked list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (206 results).

The short term slide in Ryanair Holdings despite rising guest numbers puts a simple question in front of you. Are you looking at a cheaper claim on the same cash machine, or at sentiment that has not finished resetting?

Most Popular Narrative: 17% Undervalued

On the narrative numbers, Ryanair Holdings screens as undervalued, with a fair value estimate of €28.57 against the €23.79 close. This puts the focus squarely on whether the traffic and cost story can support that gap.

Fuel and currency hedging out to FY 2027 at materially better rates, alongside a transition to a debt free balance sheet with over 600 unencumbered aircraft, gives Ryanair a high degree of cost and financing visibility. This can be used to selectively stimulate fares while still widening the cost gap to competitors, potentially supporting resilient earnings through the cycle.

See why 7 investors see Ryanair Holdings as 17% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of €28.57 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, softer near term fares and ongoing capacity pressure could squeeze Ryanair Holdings' pricing power and unsettle the current fair value narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Ryanair Holdings narrative.

Next Steps

Risk or opportunity: which side of the Ryanair Holdings story feels stronger to you today, and are you comfortable with both the upside and the downside in front of you? To weigh that balance yourself, move quickly through the full picture of 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Ryanair Holdings?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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