Amus asserts that only Saylor can handle MSTR's high leverage, BTC may reach $1.6 million in 2030

According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin asset management model adopted by Strategy (MSTR.US) (NASDAQ: MSTR) is regarded by economist Safidine Amus as an unreplicable commercial model. In Cointelegraph's “Proof of Thesis” podcast, Amus emphasized that although turning positive cash flow into long-term Bitcoin assets is a sound strategy, only Michael Saylor (MSTR.US) can safely navigate the high leverage model of buying Bitcoin through loans, and other companies lack the corresponding resilience to risk and execution foundation.

This uniqueness stems from Strategy's absolute position in the industry, making it an irreplaceable single player in the field rather than an ordinary member of many choices.

Judging from the deconstruction of the business model, Amus strictly distinguishes two paths: one is to use positive cash flow from financial reports for long-term asset management, and the other is to borrow money to make additional purchases by holding Bitcoin as collateral. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, Strategy enjoys the lowest loan interest rate because it holds the largest Bitcoin reserves, which forms a safety cushion for its highly leveraged strategy. Historical data validates the resilience of this model: even after experiencing a sharp drop of 77% in 2021 and a significant market correction last year, the company never triggered a liquidation mechanism. Amus made it clear that this is not an investment recommendation for MSTR (MSTR.US) stock, but rather to explain why there is no obvious second choice among companies adopting Bitcoin asset management strategies. Currently, only Michael Saylor (MSTR.US) is the only one who can actually survive and profit from such highly leveraged operations. This exclusivity has established its unique benchmark position in the industry.

In terms of macro drivers, Armus believes that short-term Bitcoin price fluctuations are mainly dominated by the Federal Reserve's policies. In the last cycle of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the price of Bitcoin almost doubled; after interest rate cuts began, the price continued to rise. Daily fluctuations are due to traders selling cryptocurrencies to meet additional margin requirements for positions in markets such as NASDAQ. From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin's trend follows a quadrennial halving cycle rather than interest rate decisions. Armus predicts that Bitcoin's bottom will occur in June of this year or the next few months, with mid-2026 to mid-2027 being the best fund-raising window.

Notably, the decline in each cycle showed a convergent trend: 85% to 90% after the first round of halving, 85% in the second round, 77% in the third round, and only 54% in the current round. This narrowing of the decline makes Bitcoin more attractive to risk-averse institutional investors, as they were previously deterred by fears of an 80% drop.

Furthermore, although the Trump administration did not directly influence currency prices, it made it less difficult to operate by appointing officials from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which relaxed regulations on altcoins. The political impasse after the midterm elections is expected to continue this situation for about two years. As for the quantum computing threat, Armus believes that it is exaggerated and that Bitcoin's UTXO structure can migrate to anti-quantum attack technology before the danger appears.

Based on the power law model, Armus gave a broad range of $200,000 to $1.6 million for the 2030 Bitcoin price. Considering that the recent price of Bitcoin is often lower than predicted by this model, he determined that the actual price is more likely to be close to the lower limit of the range.

This forecast not only reflects the statistical rules of historical data, but also implies a conservative estimate of market sentiment and the speed of institutional adoption. Bitcoin's long-term value discovery process continues against the dual backdrop of a narrowing decline in the halving cycle and a relatively stable regulatory environment, while the lower price expectations for 2030 provide investors with a rational anchor based on a mathematical model.