JUL-AUG SOYBEAN SPREAD (ZSN27-ZSQ27) - WALSH PURE SPREADER

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RICH MORAN                                                                                                                  10/1/2026

                                                                  

JUL-AUG SOYBEAN SPREAD (ZSN27-ZSQ27)

Earlier this week I suggested selling a Corn spread, for the most part, because of how far away it was from Full Carry.  I am now looking at the JUL-AUG Soybean Spread (ZSN27-ZSQ27) with pretty much the same logic in mind.  Full Carry for Soybeans from July of 2027 to August of 2027 is 15.  That would put ZSN27-ZSQ27 at -15 (negative 15).  Today this spread settled +16¼ (positive 16¼).  I am definitely not implying that grain spreads always reach Full Carry.  Actually, it is extremely rare for them to ever reach Full Carry.  There are obviously many factors that affect the price of grains, most importantly weather.

Soybean harvest usually occurs from September through November. July and August are just before that and only one month apart from each other.  Hopefully that will help minimize any discrepancies between the two months.  As I said earlier, I almost never plan on Full Carry, but in this case, maybe we can get closer to “some carry”.

Also, the JUL-AUG Soybean Spread (ZSN27-ZSQ27) has settled below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages every day since September 22^nd.  Today, we settled only about 1½ cents below these moving averages.  It might be a good risk/reward trade if we can sell this spread just below these moving averages and risk only 4 ½ cents in the spread. That would take a new 52-week high.

I am suggesting that we try to sell ZSN27-ZSQ27 at +17. That is ¾ of a cent above today’s settlement and just below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.

Risk 4½ cents (price of 21½) or $225 Per Spread to make 8 cents (price of 9) or $400 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions. 

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Rich Moran

Senior Commodities Broker

RMoran@walshtrading.com

Direct: (312)985-0298 

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