Cedric Gemmell, an economist at Gavicar Research, said that as next year's presidential election approaches, the interest rate spread between French 10-year treasury bonds and German 10-year treasury bonds may widen to 150 to 300 basis points under extreme circumstances. Energy shocks in recent months have boosted expectations of interest rate hikes, compounded by heightened market concerns about France's political and fiscal prospects, and interest spreads on French and German bonds have widened significantly. Gemmell has sorted out the next three possible evolutionary paths for this spread. As France's fiscal situation is unlikely to improve significantly, interest spreads are unlikely to narrow significantly. If “there are clear signs that the French government intends to reject the political and financial restrictions supporting the Eurozone bailout, making the restrictions on interest spreads of the Eurozone underwriting mechanism ineffective,” then “a sharp rise in interest spreads in the style of the European debt crisis” may occur.

Cedric Gemmell, an economist at Gavicar Research, said that as next year's presidential election approaches, the spread between French 10-year treasury bonds and German 10-year treasury bonds may widen to 150 to 300 basis points under extreme circumstances. Energy shocks in recent months have boosted expectations of interest rate hikes, compounded by heightened market concerns about France's political and fiscal prospects, and interest spreads on French and German bonds have widened significantly. Gemmell has sorted out the next three possible evolutionary paths for this spread. As France's fiscal situation is unlikely to improve significantly, interest spreads are unlikely to narrow significantly. If “there are clear signs that the French government intends to reject the political and financial restrictions supporting the Eurozone bailout, making the restrictions on interest spreads of the Eurozone underwriting mechanism ineffective,” then “a sharp rise in interest spreads in the style of the European debt crisis” may occur.