ETF daily inflows plummeted to 31 million, and BTC's 8.4 million resistance was difficult to break

According to Woofun AI, the US spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US) market is facing the double impact of shrinking liquidity and price resistance. Although the continuous upward record has been extended to 8 trading days, the daily net inflow fell sharply to $31 million on September 28. This weak buying is difficult to shake Bitcoin's stagnant upward pattern below the $84,000 key resistance level, and there are significant signs that institutional demand is cooling down.

Judging from the product performance of various institutions, capital differentiation has intensified. BlackRock IBIT led the way with a net inflow of $54.84 million, adding about 657 BTC, returning its holdings to over 800,000 for the first time since May 26; Grayscale Mini-Trust had an inflow of $10.32 million. In contrast, Fidelity's FBTC outflows were $10.9 million, Grayscale GBTC outflows were $23.19 million, and there was no net flow change for the rest of the products.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the inflow situation has continued to deteriorate since the peak of nearly 1 billion US dollars on September 21, and the current cumulative net inflow is only about 97% of that peak. Despite weak single-day data, the cumulative net inflow reached US$2.4 billion last week, setting the highest record in 2026 and the largest weekly inflow since October 2025.

This strong weekly performance reversed a cumulative loss of approximately US$5.8 billion in July, with cumulative inflows reaching US$2.73 billion this year and a cumulative net inflow of approximately US$1.01 billion in 2026.

At the level of market structure, supply resistance has become a core variable. Glassnode notes that the $84,000-85,000 range is a high concentration of supply for long-term holders, and their holdings exceed any other price range on the cost distribution chart. Bitcoin has retreated from above $87,000 last week and is facing potential selling pressure. Demand for ETFs absorbed supply and supported a rise of about 4% last week, but buying strength has declined sharply. The net inflow of $31 million on Monday was equivalent to less than 400 BTC, while the inflow of nearly $1 billion at the beginning of last week corresponded to over 11,000 BTC.

This difference of orders of magnitude shows that in the face of dense supply zones, the purchasing power of institutions is currently significantly insufficient, making it difficult to directly absorb sell-off pressure.

The next few trading days will be particularly critical, as the market will verify the ability of funds to return. If the intention to buy ETFs picks up, it is expected to absorb the supply pressure in the $84,000-85,000 range and restart the upward channel; conversely, if net inflows continue to shrink or turn negative, it may be difficult for Bitcoin to break through the current price range and fall into a volatile settlement. This is another severe test of the market's sustainability of institutional capital following the July losses.