Starship, Starlink, or xAI: Which Part of SpaceX Could Move the Stock Most in 2027?

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) is moving quickly in so many directions that it can be hard to keep up.

Its artificial intelligence unit, xAI, is building data centers and has a top frontier model, Grok. And its rocket business recently launched its Starship rocket into orbit for the first time. Meanwhile, the company's Starlink satellite broadband business connects millions of customers worldwide to the internet and could become a leading provider in the coming years.

Investors wondering what part of SpaceX's business could most move its stock price next year should keep a close eye on Starlink. Here's why.

Starlink is the main event, for now

Starlink is often overshadowed by SpaceX's other businesses because, well, it's hard to compete with the world's largest rocket blasting off into space or the latest news about the artificial intelligence race.

But Starlink is, for now, SpaceX's most important business because it generates the most revenue for the company -- more than 60% of total sales.

It's also SpaceX's only profitable business.

Starlink is a high-margin, recurring-cash-flow business, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $2.6 billion in the second quarter -- up 64% from the year-ago quarter.

Starlink reported a total of 12 million global customers as of the end of June, and about 3 million of those are in the U.S. Analysts believe there could be far more subscriber growth ahead, with the potential to reach 15 million U.S.-based customers by 2030.

The latest estimates put Starlink's satellite internet total addressable market at $129 billion just four years from now, providing SpaceX with plenty of opportunity to expand its sales in this business.

With Starlink being SpaceX's leading source of revenue and profit, and its potential to tap into a large global market, any indications that the business is continuing to expand at a healthy clip could send shares higher in 2027.

AI spending could have a major impact, too

The flip side of the positive impact Starlink could have on the stock is that SpaceX is spending a lot of money to expand its xAI business, including building expensive data centers.

SpaceX is spending far more on its artificial intelligence business than it is on anything else, including developing, building, and testing rocket ships. Capital expenditures more than tripled in the first half of 2026, with 83% of spending going to SpaceX's AI business.

Here's the breakdown:

SpaceX Segment	1H 2025 Capex	1H 2026 Capex	Change (YOY)
Space	$1.7 billion	$2.2 billion	30%
Connectivity (Starlink)	$1.9 billion	$2.7 billion	39%
Artificial intelligence	$3.3 billion	$23.5 billion	610%

Data source: Starlink.

A 610% increase in AI capex is hard to overlook, and it's likely one of the reasons investors haven't been more eager to jump on board with SpaceX stock.

There are legitimate areas of growth for SpaceX's AI business, and Goldman Sachs underwriters said before SpaceX went public that the company's AI sales could reach $322 billion by 2030.

But its AI sales aren't anywhere close to that right now -- just $3.4 billion in the first half of 2026.

If SpaceX continues to increase AI spending at such a rapid pace, I don't know if any amount of Starlink growth will move the needle for the stock. This is why shareholders should pay close attention to both of these businesses next year and beyond.

Of course, if SpaceX can significantly ramp up its AI revenue and show that its spending is starting to pay off, that could be a catalyst for gains in its share price.

For now, though, investors should focus their attention on Starlink, while also keeping a close eye on AI spending.

Chris Neiger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.