Jibang Consulting: HBM supply continues to be tight, and the 2027 HBM price forecast is estimated to increase ASP by 121% per year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the latest research by TrendForce Jibang Consulting, demand for AI servers continues to expand, and HBM and conventional DRAM are still competing for limited advanced processes and wafer production capacity. Coupled with the yield and output improvement of next-generation products, it is estimated that memory supply will continue to be tight in 2027.

While overall memory prices maintain an upward trend, suppliers are also more clear about the 2027 HBM price increase. To reflect the impact of continued tight overall supply and the increase in the share of high-priced HBM4 and the gradual expansion of HBM4e in the second half of 2027, TrendForce Jibang Consulting revised its HBM price forecast for next year, and estimated that Blended ASP will increase by 121% per year.

Supply and cost restrictions drive capacity adjustments, and 8hi has become a priority evaluation plan for many manufacturers

TrendForce Jibang Consulting pointed out that recently GPU and ASIC manufacturers have been discussing reducing HBM's carrying capacity. The main consideration is not that demand for terminal computing is weakening, but rather that HBM supply is limited and overall system costs are rising rapidly. Compared to the 12hi HBM product previously planned, 8hi requires a smaller amount of DRAM Die (die film), which helps reduce the cost of a single stack (HBM stack) and overall GPU material costs, and can also support the shipment of more GPUs with the same HBM bit output. Therefore, with HBM supply continuing to be tight, 8hi is expected to become a priority evaluation plan for many GPU and ASIC vendors in 2027, as a compromise between performance, supply and cost for GPU vendors.

However, the reduction in HBM capacity does not mean that the price per unit capacity (per Gb) will decrease at the same time. Since each HBM needs to be equipped with a base die, the related cost will not decrease in equal proportion as the number of stacked layers decreases; the DRAM capacity of 8HI products that can allocate base die costs is less than 12hi, so the converted cost per Gb is higher. TrendForce Jibang Consulting estimates that the price per GB of 8hi products in 2027 may be about 10% to 20% premium over 12hi.

Overall, TrendForce Jibang Consulting believes that the HBM market will continue the supply shortage pattern in 2027. Under the dual considerations of tight supply and rising costs, the penetration rate of the 8hi specification will further increase and become a priority evaluation plan for more GPU and ASIC manufacturers; however, its cost per GB structure has a premium over 12HI, which is still an important variable that customers need to include in the evaluation of specification negotiations and supply chain layout. Therefore, although the 2027 HBM capacity adjustment can partially relieve the pressure on GPU costs, it is difficult to reverse the sharp rise in HBM's overall price.