Herbalife (HLF) Joins India Olympic Push, Is The Stock Still A Bargain?

Herbalife (HLF) is back in focus after Herbalife India agreed to become the Official Nutrition Partner for the Indian Olympic Association at the 20th Asian Games, tying the brand directly to elite sports performance.

Recent trading tells a mixed story. Herbalife’s share price is up 5.7% over the past week but down 4.2% over the last three months, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 48.1% contrasts with a 5 year total shareholder return that is down 70.5%.

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Bulls point to Herbalife’s recent earnings momentum and the fresh India Olympics spotlight, while bears focus on the weak 5 year return record. Which story does the current valuation actually support next?

Most Popular Narrative: 26% Undervalued

Herbalife’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $17 per share, compared with the recent close of $12.60. This frames the current price as a clear discount and puts the focus on whether the earnings path and risk profile justify that gap.

The company is seeing early signs of accelerating momentum in key markets, particularly North America, with July marking the first month of year-over-year volume growth in the region since 2021. This could signal a reversal of past declines and bolster top-line growth.

Expansion of digital engagement, AI-driven marketing, subscription-based offerings, and enhanced distributor tools is increasing operational efficiencies and recurring revenues. This supports improved net margins and cash flow generation over the longer term.

See why 9 investors see Herbalife as 26% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $17 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the narrative can break if regulatory scrutiny on multi level marketing models bites harder than expected, or if flat volumes in mature regions persist longer.

Find out about the key risks to this Herbalife narrative.

Next Steps

Mixed sentiment around Herbalife is clear, and waiting on the sidelines leaves others to set the story for you. Review the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

Looking for more Herbalife investment ideas beyond this story?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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