Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are trending higher early Monday as Wall Street weighs resilience in equities against a backdrop of surging Treasury yields and escalating Middle East tensions.

The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning bearish for the Sept. 28 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 28?” contract currently reflects a 28% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are balancing strong corporate earnings and tech optimism against severe geopolitical friction and high borrowing costs:

• Positive Index Futures: Equity futures are pointing to a mostly green open, with tech and blue-chip stocks leading. At the last check, Dow Jones futures rose 0.86% and S&P 500 futures advanced 0.47%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.40%, while Russell 2000 futures bucked the trend, slipping 0.55%.

• Geopolitics & Energy Rebound: Energy markets jumped after President Donald Trump reportedly rejected an Iranian proposal tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Tehran is “fully prepared” to resume war, though he said Iran remains open to real diplomacy. Consequently, Brent crude futures surged 1.65% to $99.05 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 1.74% to $94.02 a barrel.

• Economic Data & Earnings: Domestically, all eyes are on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, due on Wednesday. The September jobs report will follow on Friday. Monday’s earnings docket includes reports from Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:JEF), Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE:MTN), and IDT Corporation (NYSE:IDT).

The Bull Case and Market Outlook

Mohamed A. El-Erian highlighted that despite U.S. sovereign borrowing costs hitting multi-decade highs—with yields across all major maturities from the 5-year out ending last week above 5%—equities remain remarkably buoyant. He said a “historical bond-equity dispersion,” noting that overseas investors have a record appetite for U.S. equities.

This appetite is fueled by “American technological exceptionalism and broader corporate agility and entrepreneurship,” which has helped the stock market defy gravity.

Furthermore, recent diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and China have resulted in an agreement for “more favorable tariff treatment” for $30 billion in goods, establishing AI safety talks and an incident communication channel.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Sept. 25 Polymarket contract resolved “Up.” The contract recorded $76,202 in total trading volume.

On Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed higher. SPY rose 0.54% to $771.35, while QQQ gained 0.46% to $744.50. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 0.94% higher at $517.49.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.