Oil prices surge as Trump rejects Iran peace deal. What's next?

Oil prices are climbing again on Monday, continuing a rally that has seen crude gain almost 50% over the past year.

And there's little sign of things slowing down just yet.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is currently up 1.15% to US$93.47 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Brent crude has climbed 1.68% to US$106.07, bringing the US$110 mark back into focus.

And after another eventful weekend in the Middle East, there could be more volatility ahead.

Let's take a closer look.

Trump rejects Iran peace proposal

The latest increase comes after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Reuters, Tehran offered to reopen the strategic waterway within 7 days in exchange for sanctions relief and a ceasefire.

However, Trump refused to accept the terms over the weekend, although negotiations are expected to resume this week.

The situation has been complicated by further attacks across the region.

Saudi Arabia has faced additional missile and drone attacks from Yemen's Houthi forces, threatening the security of its energy infrastructure.

This has added to concerns about further supply disruptions, helping push oil prices higher.

Russia's oil infrastructure takes another hit

The conflict in Ukraine is creating further problems, with another Russian refinery forced to suspend operations.

Last Friday, a Ukrainian drone attack damaged Russia's Novoshakhtinsk refinery in the Rostov region.

The refinery has the capacity to process approximately 110,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

The attack follows several strikes on Russian refining facilities, including sites near Moscow and Yaroslavl.

Russia has also been restricting diesel exports as it attempts to rebuild domestic fuel reserves ahead of cold winter.

Trump has reportedly urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to halt further strikes on Russian oil facilities.

Where could oil prices go next?

Saudi Arabia's efforts to restore its East-West pipeline could play an important role in where oil prices head next.

The pipeline restarted last week following a drone attack, but it's still operating below full capacity.

And it could take another 6 to 8 weeks before it returns to its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day.

The pipeline allows Saudi Arabia to transport crude to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

But with operations still limited, the country could struggle to make up for the oil lost through Hormuz.

I'll be closely watching whether Brent pushes past US$110 this week, especially if the pipeline's recovery takes longer than expected.

The post Oil prices surge as Trump rejects Iran peace deal. What's next? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Motley Fool's purpose is to help the world invest, better. Click here now for your free subscription to Take Stock, The Motley Fool's free investing newsletter. Packed with stock ideas and investing advice, it is essential reading for anyone looking to build and grow their wealth in the years ahead. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson. 2026