China Post Securities: Wait for expectations to reverse multiple types of non-ferrous metals or welcome the layout window

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Post Securities released a research report saying that the market continued to trade with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes this week, and interest rates on US bonds continued to rise, and precious metals continued to be pressured. If core PCE data weakens by a certain margin, there will be a sharp rebound in interest rate hikes, and gold prices are expected to rebound; on the copper side, market sentiment picked up after the Federal Reserve's rate hike was implemented, copper prices gradually recovered. Domestic inventories fell to a low level during the year, and spot prices rose more than 1,400 yuan; the impact of aluminum inventory removal supported aluminum prices, and demand for profiles recovered;, A bargain layout is recommended. Overall, the bank believes that the interest rate hike in September means a favorable situation. If the price is adjusted after the interest rate hike, it is a clear chance to get on the bus.

The main views of China Post Securities are as follows:

Precious Metals: Waiting for Expectations to Reverse

The market continued to trade the Federal Reserve's continuous rate hikes this week. As Federal Reserve officials continued to make hawkish statements, interest rates on US bonds continued to rise, and precious metals continued to be under pressure. The actual actions of the Federal Reserve will continue to focus on inflation trends. Focus on next week's core PCE data. If there is a certain weakening, there will be a sharp rebound in expectations of interest rate hikes. The US term interest rate spread is expected to rise rapidly, and the price of gold is expected to rebound. From the perspective of the allocation market, the central bank continues to significantly increase its gold holdings, and the bottom position of gold is quite clear. Overall, the bank believes that the interest rate hike in September means a favorable situation. If the price is adjusted after the interest rate hike, it is a clear chance to get on the bus.

Copper: Market sentiment picked up after the Fed's interest rate hike was implemented, and copper prices gradually recovered

Looking at fundamentals, mining disturbances such as strikes and salary negotiations continued. Chile's copper production declined in the first half of the year, and TC continued to fall. In October, domestic smelter maintenance was concentrated, and production may continue to decline. COMEX inventories continued to increase slightly. Domestic inventories fell to a low level during the year, and spot stock surpassed 1,400 yuan. On the macro side, many Federal Reserve officials have stated that they are hawkish. Short-term macroeconomic weakness or amplification of fluctuations, but there is strong momentum for restoration after retracement. It is recommended to focus on the tariff situation on September 28, Escondida salary negotiations, October maintenance implementation, and November long order negotiations.

Aluminum: Inventory removal supports aluminum prices, and profile demand recovers

The price of aluminum in Shanghai fluctuated this week due to macroeconomic disturbances, but spot prices increased further, the conversion rate of aluminum to water remained high, and apparent inventories continued to decline. The rise in the South China market compared to the northern market continues to rise, indicating that phased demand for profiles is the main force driving the strength of the stock market. Currently, the market expects a partial resumption of production in the Middle East in '27, but it is difficult to achieve substantial resumption of production in a short period of time. Domestic aluminum prices are expected to rebound in September-October, but long-term valuations may still be suppressed by forward supply. Aoyama's commissioning of production in Indonesia may put pressure on prices in '27. Overall, '27 is a year where the supply of electrolytic aluminum is relatively relaxed. The equity proposal coincides with a high reduction in positions.

Tin: The impact of interest rate hikes came to fruition, and a dips layout is recommended

Tin prices fluctuated this week. After the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike was implemented, tin price support was obvious. The raw material side remained scarce, demand for AI data centers was strong, social inventories remained low, and tin prices remained low. The bank believes that low inventories and the tightening of the mining side provide fundamental support. The short-term impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on tin prices has ended, and tin prices may rebound, driven by US technology stocks, and suggests a low layout.

Tungsten: Continued adjustment of tungsten prices

Tungsten prices continued to be adjusted this week. Demand for downstream terminals was poor. Leading tungsten companies continued to drop their long order prices in the second half of September. Although smelters reduced their load, industry inventories were high, downstream powder companies' orders were poor, supply and demand conflicts were prominent, and traders mainly cut prices and sold goods. The bank believes that in the future, it should focus on the price performance of tungsten powder, APT, etc., and the progress of warehousing. The recovery in terminal demand is a necessary condition for the rise in tungsten prices. Looking at the medium to long term, domestic controls on tungsten ore supply indicators and mining have been strengthened. Overseas price differences are high, and the center of tungsten prices is expected to rise in the medium to long term.

Lithium: The main contract fluctuated widely during the week, and the spot showed a trend of rising first and then falling

The arrival of spodumene in Hong Kong fell short of expectations, and weekly production declined somewhat; demand-side pre-holiday storage continued, and warehouse receipts continued to be eliminated, but the pace game between supply-side production cuts and downstream procurement continued. Maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and pay attention to the continuity of pre-holiday storage and warehouse receipt removal.

Molybdenum: Prices of molybdenum concentrate (40-45%) declined slightly during the week

However, it is still stable in the 5,400-5,500 yuan/tonnage range. Steel procurement is active, mines are reluctant to sell, and the operation is weak at high levels. Looking at the medium to long term, there will be no significant supply volume until 2028. Demand for military, oil and gas, and “molybdenum instead of tungsten” intensifies, and molybdenum prices are expected to rise to the next level.

Risk warning:

The macroeconomy fluctuated greatly, demand fell short of expectations, supply releases exceeded expectations, and the company's project progress fell short of expectations.