CITIC Securities Electronics Industry 26Q3 Performance Forecast: AI Inflation Chain Performs Best, Autonomous and Controllable Growth Continues

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the overall performance of the 26Q3 electronics industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity under the wave of AI trends. Looking ahead to 2026Q4 and 2027, the bank believes that the main investment line in the electronics industry will continue to revolve around the two major directions of “autonomy, controllability, and AI computing power.” On the one hand, domestic computing power chips, wafer manufacturing, equipment, and advanced packaging are accelerating to form a closed loop in the industry, and orders and performance of related companies are expected to continue to be fulfilled; on the other hand, demand for AI server components is booming, and the performance of related supply chain companies is expected to continue to be fulfilled. Continue to be optimistic about the segmentation direction with strong fundamentals, high performance delivery, and space for domestic production alternatives. Among them, 1) AI direction; 2) autonomous and controllable direction; 3) price increase direction; 4) others.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

26Q3 performance outlook: AI inflation chain has the best performance, domestic equipment and parts delivery is tight, and the autonomous and controllable boom continues

It is expected that the 2026Q3 performance of the AI inflation chain-related segments will continue to be strong; the North American AI chain and optical communication related links are booming, and the performance growth of PCB/CCL, storage, AI power supplies, etc. will continue with high certainty; AI demand has led to tight overseas production capacity, and some orders will continue to return to the domestic market; orders for domestic semiconductor equipment and components will grow rapidly, and material shortages will cause short-term delivery to continue without changing the long-term growth trend; downstream consumer electronics terminals are expected to continue the lackluster Q2 trend.

1) The direction of AI inflation: It is expected that the volume and price of AI PCBs and storage manufacturers will rise sharply in 2026Q3, niche storage design performance will improve, MLCC price increases will be most certain, Q3 performance will begin to be reflected, and power and simulation performance will gradually fulfill the flexibility of price increases.

2) Autonomous controllable chain direction: Affected by AI order crowding out and overseas order transfers, domestic manufacturing/sealing orders are full, and the operating rate is high. Expectations for foreign storage and logic expansion continue to rise, and orders in the equipment/parts industry chain continue to boom; the trend of poor downstream computing power continues, upstream supply chain problems are being solved, and the revenue/orders of domestic computing power-related companies have maintained leaps and bounds.

3) Consumer electronics direction: The impact of storage price increases continues, and downstream terminals will continue the Q2 trend, and the overall performance is lackluster; midstream companies with exposure to new businesses such as AI are expected to perform better, while upstream IC design companies have better performance in storage consolidation business and new product release logic; in addition, automotive electronics-related supply chain performance is relatively steady.

4) Other sectors: LCD is expected to be relatively stable, OLED is under pressure, the LED industry is stable, and the performance of companies with price increase logic is stronger.

Taken together, segments that are expected to perform relatively well in 2026Q3 include PCB/CCL, original storage and niche storage design, AI power supplies, CPU chains, FAB leaders, equipment leaders, IC design companies with integrated storage, and new product release companies.

AI inflation sector: 2026Q3 AI PCB/CCL performance is expected to maintain high growth, the volume and price of original storage manufacturers have risen sharply, and there is strong certainty that MLCC price increases will be implemented

1) PCB/CCL: In the AI PCB field, with the iterative shipment of next-generation computing power chips, AI PCB orders are growing rapidly. At the same time, new production capacity in the industry is gradually being released, and performance is expected to maintain high growth under resonance with production and demand; in the traditional PCB field, manufacturers with the ability to pick up materials concentrate on raising prices in the middle of the year, and the price increase effect is further enhanced, and 26Q3 profitability is expected to improve significantly.

2) Storage: The volume and price of original storage manufacturers have risen sharply, and performance is expected to continue to exceed expectations; CPU chain pulls are accelerating, memory interfaces and supporting chip rings are growing strongly; niche storage design prices continue to rise, production capacity has increased moderately, gross margin and profit have risen to the next level; and the trend of the module sector has begun to diverge.

3) Passive components: MLCC price increases have the strongest certainty and the pace is relatively fast. Q3 results will begin to be reflected. Inductors, aluminum electrolysis, films, etc. will benefit even more significantly from the AI-driven trend.

4) Power devices: Related companies also showed profit elasticity brought about by price increases. Some companies reflected Q2, and Q3, such as new energy saving, was further reflected.

5) Analog chips: The price increase is expected to be relatively moderate, and the revenue of companies with high AI exposure will maintain a high growth rate.

Autonomous and controllable sector: 2026Q3 continues to benefit from overseas order transfers under AI crowd+domestic computing power and production expansion demand trends

1) Semiconductor manufacturing/packaging testing: It is expected that 2026Q3 will be affected by the crowding out of AI orders and overseas order transfers. Domestic orders will continue to be full, the operating rate will remain high, and prices will continue to rise month-on-month, but investment related to advanced assets continues to be carried out, causing pressure on the depreciation side.

2) Semiconductor equipment/components: Expected 2026Q3, benefiting from the continued increase in domestic storage and logic production expectations, and the overall order trend in the industry chain continues to boom. Among them, Qiandao equipment companies are receiving orders faster, the outlook for 2027 order growth is optimistic, and later, Daoguang related equipment is being shipped faster, and testing machine delivery is tight; however, due to delivery pressure from the upstream component side, the shipping pace of some equipment companies fluctuates gradually, and the long-term positive trend will not change; in addition, investment in advanced process-related equipment research and development will continue until the scale effect is released; it is expected; In 2026Q3, production capacity on the upstream component side was tight, delivery was lengthened, the speed of commissioning began to accelerate, and production capacity was planned or released early in the medium to long term.

3) Domestic computing power: The trend of poor downstream computing power continues. Upstream supply chain issues are being resolved, and related companies' revenues/orders have continued to grow by leaps and bounds. After supply chain issues are further resolved, revenue growth is expected to accelerate further.

Consumer electronics sector: 2026Q3 storage price impact continues, terminal demand is relatively lackluster, focus on AI transformation, new product release, and automotive electronics supply chain opportunities

1) Downstream: On the mobile side, the bank expects global mobile phone shipments to be weak and shipments to drop by 10% to 20% in 26Q3. Among them, Apple phones are relatively resilient. Huawei has benefited from new phone releases and excelled in the Chinese market. The overall decline in Android shipments is more than that of the market. It is expected that due to continued increases in storage prices, traditional consumer electronics Q3 delivery momentum is relatively insufficient, compounded by negative contributions related to exchange. The overall performance of industry chain companies is average. Among them, terminal brand companies' revenue has increased significantly, but profit margins are still under high year-on-year pressure.

2) Midstream: It is expected that 2026Q3 parts companies will have better performance related to new business exposure such as AI.

3) Upstream: The 2026Q3IC design company is expected to have better performance in storage and packaging business, new product release logic, etc.; in addition, the 2026Q3 automotive electronics-related supply chain performance is expected to be relatively stable.

Risk factors:

Risk of global macroeconomic downturn; risk of increasing international political environment and trade frictions; downstream demand falls short of expectations; AI innovation falls short of expectations; AI commercialization progress falls short of expectations; Android industry chain innovation falls short of expectations; domestic fab expansion falls short of expectations; development of advanced process technology falls short of expectations; competition among downstream manufacturers intensifies; risk of rising raw material prices due to inflation; risk of increased sanctions; sharp exchange rate fluctuations, etc.