CF Industries Holdings (CF) Pulls Back, Is It Still A Bargain?

CF Industries Holdings (CF) has drawn fresh attention after its shares closed at US$114.67 on 26 September 2026. This capped a mixed stretch that included a decline over the past month but a gain over the past 3 months.

CF Industries Holdings has recently given back some ground, with the share price down 10.2% over the past week and 8.8% over the past month. However, the 90 day share price return of 8.5% and year to date share price gain of 43.1% suggest longer term momentum is still intact. In addition, the 1 year total shareholder return of 27% and 5 year total shareholder return of 108.3% point to a history of rewarding patient investors, even through shorter bouts of volatility that can reflect shifting expectations for future earnings or changes in perceived risk around the fertilizer cycle.

Compare CF Industries Holdings with a hand picked group of peers by screening for list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (24 results), which may handle fertilizer cycle swings with similar resilience.

CF Industries Holdings now trades below the average analyst target and at a sizable discount to some intrinsic estimates. Does the recent pullback bring the share price closer to fair value, or does it leave a larger gap?

Most Popular Narrative: 8% Undervalued

Against the last close of $114.67, the most followed narrative pins CF Industries Holdings' fair value at about $125.25, creating a modest valuation gap that hinges on how cash flow holds up through the nitrogen cycle.

Management’s raised mid cycle outlook to about US$2.9b of EBITDA and US$1.7b of free cash flow, with a further US$400 million of EBITDA expected from projects such as Blue Point One and additional carbon capture by 2030, encourages investors to underwrite current pricing on the basis of extended strength in cash generation and earnings.

See why 30 investors see CF Industries Holdings as 8% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $125.25 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the CF Industries Holdings story can break if nitrogen prices reset faster than analysts expect, or if big projects such as Blue Point One suffer cost or timing setbacks.

Find out about the key risks to this CF Industries Holdings narrative.

Next Steps

Mixed signals around CF Industries Holdings do not have to leave you on the fence. Review both sides of the story and weigh the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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