QIC flags risk oil above USD 100/bbl forces global central banks back into tightening mode

• QIC flagged rising oil prices as the key swing factor, risking a shift to a “Malignant” scenario with Brent above USD 100/bbl into 2027.
• Core inflation re-accelerated in major economies, pushing the Fed, ECB, RBA, BoJ, BoC, BoE toward renewed tightening over 12 months.
• Market pricing implied RBA cash rate at 5% by May, fed funds at 4.8% by July 2027, ECB policy rate at 3.4% by July 2027.
• Higher real yields lifted the cost of capital; a 0.9 percentage-point rise in US 10-year real yields since early March risked 15% equity downside.
• AI-driven capex and wealth effects supported growth and stocks; QIC estimated 1ppt higher real rates needs 1ppt permanent lift in real earnings growth.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. QIC Ltd. published the original content used to generate this news brief on September 25, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.