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Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain

Barchart·09/24/2026 14:42:27

Listen to the news

9/24/26

The markets were moving all over today, after news came out that there was an agreement made between the US and Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to that agreement, Crude Oil was trading more than $4.50 higher on the day after Ukraine hit a refinery in Russia, and the Houthi's hit a refinery in Saudi Arabia, that was at the western end of the East - West oil pipeline, that was set to reopen soon. The Crude Oil was pushing all markets around all morning, but hopefully a deal is made and it lasts. Then we can get back to normal trading. The Soybean Oil has pulled back off its highs, but I anticipate that changing in the beginning of October and lasting through the end of the year. Last night India cut its import tax on Soybean Oil and Palm Oil by 5 ½%. This cut has come just before the upcoming festival season, and we should see new purchases of vegetable oils by India very soon. The lack of monsoon rains in India, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia continue to cause problems with their oilseed crops and the Palm Oil. If the El Nino weather pattern strengthens, and I think there is evidence this El Nino could be one for the record books, and there is significant damage to either or both crops, it could be off to the races, at the same time biofuel demand is extremely strong, and festival season is about to begin. When a strong El Nino weather pattern forms, like we have now, it affects the weather globally. For example, we are currently in the middle of hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, and there has not been one single hurricane storm yet this year. This has only happed twice dating back to 1851. It happened last in 1914, and the time before that was in 1907. This tells me the current El Nino is no joke and could drastically cut production of Oilseed, Palm Oil, and Sugar #11. This may cause the demand for Soybean Oil and Canola Oil to spike higher. I expect this Bullish run to begin in early October and should last well into 2027. Cocoa, and Coffee crops could be affected as well. XI is meeting with President Trump in Washington D.C. today, and if there are not any new Soybean purchases announced, I feel the Soybeans could easily break a dollar, taking the Soybean Meal down with it. I started buying the Natural Gas a couple days ago, and that contract looks great moving forward. Europe does not have enough energy, and I anticipate massive buying before the weather there starts to change. Domestically, data centers are popping up all over, and they need a backup power source. Amazon just signed a deal with Generac for 8 billion dollars, to provide backup power to its data centers, and don't forget about all of the AI data centers. All of these Data Centers have one thing in common, and it is Natural Gas. There is a Natural Gas Trade from Tuesday below. I also have yesterday's Trades in the Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil shown below as well. I still feel the Cattle Markets need to break and find a lower low. There is also a gap below the market in the October'26 Feeder Cattle. October'26 Feeder Cattle on Friday 9/18 settled at 323.50, and on Monday morning 9/21, they opened at 328.55. That is a gap $5.05 wide. I feel the Feeders have run too high anticipating China buying US Beef, and if no new deal is made, I feel the gap below could be in play. October'26 Feeders settled today at 331.75 and the top of the gap below is only $3.20 away. Please give me a call if you have any questions. Have a great night.

...NEW NEWS COPIED FROM MKT NEWS BELOW…

"Houthi says it struck Riyadh and ARAMCO Yanbu facilities in response to Saudi airstrikes Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said Saudi Arabia has carried out 1,018 air and missile strikes since the escalation began, using F-15 and Typhoon fighters launched from KHAMIS MUSHAIT, Taif and other bases to strike Marib, Saada, Hodeidah, Taiz, Jawf and Al Bayda, causing civilian casualties including women and children and damaging civilian infrastructure. In response, Houthi forces said they conducted two operations targeting Riyadh and ARAMCO facilities in Yanbu using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones, and claimed success. Saree said Saudi action will not stop Houthi reprisals and vowed to "respond to blockade with blockade, escalation with escalation" until Saudi Arabia ceases operations and lifts the blockade."

YESTERDAY WHEN THE MARKETS WERE OPEN, I SENT OUT THE TRADES BELOW.

9/22/26

I am still Bullish the Soybean Oil, Sugar #11, and now the Natural Gas Contracts. I am Bearish the Soybeans, and the Cattle Markets, but only for a limited time in the Cattle Markets. There are a few new Trades below, including two new Bullish March'27 Feeder Cattle. I still think the October'26 Feeders can break 20-dollars from here, but the downside in the March'27 is limited, as March'27 Contract is 17.60 below the October'26 Contract month. Give me a call if you have any questions. Have a great night.

9/17/26

The last strong El Nino weather pattern was in 2015-2016, and this year's El Nino is being called a “Super El Nino”, felt globally, with record breaking water temperatures. I asked AI what it thought about the Sugar #11 market and how the current El Nino weather pattern could affect sugar production worldwide, compared to the last strong El Nino, and this is what it had to say. The most consequential recent example was in 2015-2016. Drought associated with El Nino damaged or threatened cane production in parts of Asia, particularly Thailand and India, while abnormal rainfall affected harvesting and logistics in some other producing regions. This contributed to tighter world sugar supplies and higher prices. As of September 17, 2026, nearby sugar was around 17.5-18 cents per pound, after rising roughly 30% from earlier 2026 lows. The bullish case is supported by expectations that the global market may shift from a surplus in 2025/26 to a deficit of roughly 200,000-260,000 metric tons in 2026/27. Lower production forecasts for India and Thailand, possible El Nino-related crop damage, heavy Brazilian rains, and stronger oil prices encouraging Brazilian mills to produce ethanol instead of sugar are all supportive. The feedback from the conversation with AI also produced a region-by-region forecast or result for the Sugar crops. India - Often below-normal monsoon rainfall, causing drought stress and lower sugarcane yields. Thailand - Frequently drier conditions, reduced cane growth, and lower crushing volumes. Australia - Often hotter and drier conditions in important cane-growing areas, reducing yields where irrigation is limited. Indonesia and the Philippines - Drought can reduce sugarcane growth, especially during strong El Nino events. Brazil - The outcome varies by region. Excess rain can delay harvesting and lower cane quality, while drought can reduce cane growth and sucrose content. Central and Western Pacific Islands - Drought and heat can damage cane crops and reduce water availability. United States and parts of Europe - Effects are mixed and generally less directly linked to global sugar shortages, sugar beets results depend on local rainfall and temperature. The AI has described extatically what is happing right now. The rainfall in India, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia is very light, affecting Oilseed, Palm Oil and Sugar Crops. There is a good chance we can see record breaking prices in each of these commodities. Don't forget, this El Nino is being called a Super El Nino, and is predicted to be the strongest on record, since records were kept starting in 1950. All of these crops are used in biofuels worldwide as well. I recommend taking advantage of any and all pullbacks in these markets. Read what I wrote on Tuesday the 15th, it is shown just below. I am still Bearish the Cattle Markets and today's price action helped. I feel we can see it continue to break. My levels have not changed, but there are a couple more after the recent rally. If the October'26 Feeder Cattle continue lower from here, then I think there could be pauses around the 321.00, and 315.00 levels with my target level waiting at 306.00. It could trade 20-dollars lower than 306.00, but that is where I still plan to start buying it. Today's Feeder Cattle Trades and a Soybean Meal Trade are shown below. I am still Bearish the Fats and Feeders, and Bullish the Soybean Oil and Sugar #11 Markets. Give me a call if you have any questions. Have a great night.

9/15/26

It is starting to look like the world could have a Sugar situation on its hands for the next 6-12 months and beyond. France could have its smallest Corn and Sugar Beet harvest in more than 50-years due to the drought and heat being produced from the El Nino weather pattern that has developed. This year's Corn crop in France is expected to be more than 40% lower than last year's crop. The French Sugar Beet crop is estimated to be almost 30% smaller compared to last year. The El Nino weather pattern is causing major problems worldwide, with problems in both Asia and South America. The crops currently affected the most by this El Nino range from Oilseed crops, Palm Oil crops, and Sugar crops mostly throughout the India, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia region, but also in Brazil. Some think that the El Nino weather pattern along with falling Sugar stocks in India could trigger a very Bullish market situation. The former head of Sugar production operations at Wilmer International has stated that “It could really be the super-hot commodity of 2027, as what is currently happening affecting Sugar could trigger one of the most Bullish markets seen for the past 20 years”. India is the world's second largest Sugar producer, and I have said earlier this year that they could put export controls on Sugar, but now, it sounds like we are way past that, and India might have to import large quantities of Sugar. In Brazil, the world's largest producer of Sugar the El Nino weather pattern is delivering too much rain and could affect more than 30% of their Sugar production. These commodities are all used for biofuel as well, and world demand for biofuels is through the roof. The next 6-12 months could see record breaking prices for Sugar, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and all vegetable Oils. Here is another example that will affect the same markets. Palm Oil Plants in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand are deteriorating due to very dry conditions over the last two-months. It has been reported that August was unusually dry in the whole region and has continued to be dry into September. The rainfall totals in Palm growing areas in Malaysia alone is down more than 30%. This is all tied together, and the El Nino weather pattern has caused the monsoon rains to be very light. Then there is the Crude Oil Market, and it continues to climb, with the October'26 contract month up another $4.44 today, settling at 105.83, with no end in sight, and this should only increase the demand for biofuels, further pressuring the supply of Sugar, Palm Oil, and Soybean Oil, as demand increases… Like I said, it is all tied together. This could be what you have been waiting for. Take advantage of this opportunity and call me now. Have a great night.

THIS MORNING'S FEEDER CATTLE TRADES WERE SENT OUT BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY 9/17/26

THE SOYBEAN MEAL TRADE BELOW WAS SENT OUT TODAY 9/17/26 AT 12:45PM

PLEASE GIVE ME A CALL IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS

9/15/26

BELOW IS A DIRECT LINK TO FILL OUT ACCOUNT PAPERWORK - PLEASE CALL ME IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS.

https://portal2.straitsfinancial.com/Identity/Account/Register?brokerId=978

GOD BLESS AMERICA

Give me a call if you have any questions.

Bill Allen

Vice President

Pure Hedge Division

Direct: 312-957-8079

ballen@walshtrading.com

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