MPLX (MPLX) Could Be 6% Undervalued On Its Natural Gas Growth Push

MPLX (MPLX) has drawn attention after recent trading left the units around $58.81, with the partnership posting annual revenue of $12.0b and net income of $4.7b from its midstream operations.

The recent 1-year total shareholder return of 24.35% and 5-year total shareholder return of 216.73% suggest MPLX has rewarded patient holders. Meanwhile, the 9.17% year to date share price return and 4.89% 3-month share price gain point to momentum that has been building rather than fading.

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MPLX now trades only modestly below the average analyst target, while internal fair value work points to a much larger gap. Which reference point deserves more weight as you think about valuation next?

Most Popular Narrative: 6.4% Undervalued

MPLX's most followed valuation storyline pegs fair value at $62.85 per unit, a shade above the recent $58.81 close. This keeps the focus squarely on whether its midstream build out can justify that gap.

The company’s disciplined capital allocation remains a live driver, with over 90% of organic growth capital directed to natural gas and NGL infrastructure. Reported 2026 adjusted EBITDA of about $1.7b in Q1 and $1.8b in Q2 supported more than $1.1b of capital returned to unitholders in each quarter. This ties future project execution directly to distributable cash flow and earnings capacity.

See why 81 investors see MPLX as 6% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $62.85 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the MPLX story depends heavily on big capital projects staying on budget and on Permian volumes holding up, so any setback there could quickly test this valuation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this MPLX narrative.

Next Steps

The mix of optimism and concern around MPLX is already clear, so step in quickly, review the key numbers and pressure test the story for yourself. To weigh both sides of the equation in one place, start with the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more MPLX investment ideas?

If MPLX is already on your radar, do not stop there. Use the tools at hand to surface fresh angles, compare opportunities and sharpen your watchlist.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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