According to Zhuochuang information, repeated blocking of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 became the biggest exogenous variable in the petrochemical industry chain, and oil prices and chemical prices fluctuated sharply in the first three quarters. From July to September, the geographical conflict escalated again. The market logic changed from “emotional panic premium” to “tight actual supply”, and crude oil, olefins, and aromatic hydrocarbons rose across the board. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the supply and demand pattern in the petrochemical industry may shift from expectations of “centralized release of new production capacity” to phased tightening. Rising raw material costs due to geographical factors may continue to suppress profits in the middle and downstream of the industrial chain, and the market is likely to maintain strong fluctuations supported by costs.

According to Zhuochuang information, repeated blocking of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 became the biggest exogenous variable in the petrochemical industry chain, and oil prices and chemical prices fluctuated sharply in the first three quarters. From July to September, the geographical conflict escalated again. The market logic changed from “emotional panic premium” to “tight actual supply”, and crude oil, olefins, and aromatic hydrocarbons rose across the board. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the supply and demand pattern in the petrochemical industry may shift from expectations of “centralized release of new production capacity” to phased tightening. Rising raw material costs due to geographical factors may continue to suppress profits in the middle and downstream of the industrial chain, and the market is likely to maintain strong fluctuations supported by costs.