Why It Might Not Make Sense To Buy Tosoh Corporation (TSE:4042) For Its Upcoming Dividend

It looks like Tosoh Corporation (TSE:4042) is about to go ex-dividend in the next 4 days. The ex-dividend date is two business days before a company's record date in most cases, which is the date on which the company determines which shareholders are entitled to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is of consequence because whenever a stock is bought or sold, the trade can take two business days or more to settle. Meaning, you will need to purchase Tosoh's shares before the 29th of September to receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 3rd of December.

The company's next dividend payment will be JP¥50.00 per share. Last year, in total, the company distributed JP¥100.00 to shareholders. Based on the last year's worth of payments, Tosoh has a trailing yield of 3.8% on the current stock price of JP¥2599.50. We love seeing companies pay a dividend, but it's also important to be sure that laying the golden eggs isn't going to kill our golden goose! That's why we should always check whether the dividend payments appear sustainable, and if the company is growing.

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Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned in profit, then the dividend could be unsustainable. Tosoh paid out 57% of its earnings to investors last year, a normal payout level for most businesses. That said, even highly profitable companies sometimes might not generate enough cash to pay the dividend, which is why we should always check if the dividend is covered by cash flow. Tosoh paid out more free cash flow than it generated - 169%, to be precise - last year, which we think is concerningly high. We're curious about why the company paid out more cash than it generated last year, since this can be one of the early signs that a dividend may be unsustainable.

Tosoh paid out less in dividends than it reported in profits, but unfortunately it didn't generate enough cash to cover the dividend. Were this to happen repeatedly, this would be a risk to Tosoh's ability to maintain its dividend.

See our latest analysis for Tosoh

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Companies with falling earnings are riskier for dividend shareholders. Investors love dividends, so if earnings fall and the dividend is reduced, expect a stock to be sold off heavily at the same time. That's why it's not ideal to see Tosoh's earnings per share have been shrinking at 2.2% a year over the previous five years.

Many investors will assess a company's dividend performance by evaluating how much the dividend payments have changed over time. Tosoh has delivered 14% dividend growth per year on average over the past 10 years. Growing the dividend payout ratio while earnings are declining can deliver nice returns for a while, but it's always worth checking for when the company can't increase the payout ratio any more - because then the music stops.

Final Takeaway

Is Tosoh an attractive dividend stock, or better left on the shelf? It's definitely not great to see earnings per share shrinking. The company paid out an acceptable percentage of its income, but an uncomfortably high percentage of its cash flow over the past year. It's not the most attractive proposition from a dividend perspective, and we'd probably give this one a miss for now.

With that being said, if you're still considering Tosoh as an investment, you'll find it beneficial to know what risks this stock is facing. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Tosoh and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you're in the market for strong dividend payers, we recommend checking our selection of top dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.