Citibank: Alibaba-W (09988) 2026-2033 revenue compound annual growth rate of about 40% reaffirms “buy” rating

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Citi released a research report stating that it reaffirmed Alibaba's (09988, BABA.US) “buy” rating and target price of 190 USD/189 HKD. The bank initially believes that the target of “achieving a 20 GW AI infrastructure scale in 2032” mentioned by Alibaba CEO Wu Yongming, or the 2033 fiscal year predicted by the bank, may be converted into external cloud revenue of 160 billion US dollars in fiscal year 2033, which means an increase of 60 billion US dollars over the bank's current forecast of 100 billion US dollars in fiscal year 2031.

According to Citi, this also suggests that the compound annual revenue growth rate (CAGR) for the 2026-2033 fiscal year is about 40%, indicating that Ali is maintaining strong growth momentum. Although Ali has yet to update its capital expenditure (CAPEX) guidance of 380 billion yuan, the bank expects capital expenditure to remain high for the next few years, as stated by Wu Yongming in an earnings call earlier. At the same time, the bank also anticipates that some infrastructure capabilities will be realized in the form of operating expenses (OPEX) through cooperation with industry partners.