The White House may be able to cause a brief drop in US diesel prices by restricting exports, but this may cause more serious supply problems in the future. If implemented, the policy's impact will be uneven across the US. There will be an oversupply in the Gulf Coast region, but due to limitations in pipeline capacity, shipping capacity, and fuel specifications, it will be difficult for this surplus diesel to be delivered smoothly to the more tight East Coast and West Coast markets. Bloomberg intelligence estimates that before hitting the transportation bottleneck, oil storage facilities along the Gulf Coast could only absorb net diesel exports for about three weeks. Globally, the impact will be even more severe. Kpler pointed out that there is no real alternative source for the amount of diesel exported from the US, which makes Latin America and North-West Europe particularly vulnerable to shocks and intensifies competition for India's diesel resources. Refiners' responses will trigger a cycle of negative feedback. If profits are drastically compressed due to slow sales of diesel, refineries will be motivated to reduce operating rates and arrange equipment maintenance. S&P Global Energy estimates that crude oil processing may need to be reduced by nearly 2 million barrels per day to absorb excess inventories — more than 10% of current production.

The White House may be able to cause a brief drop in US diesel prices by restricting exports, but this may cause more serious supply problems in the future. If implemented, the policy's impact will be uneven across the US. There will be an oversupply in the Gulf Coast region, but due to limitations in pipeline capacity, shipping capacity, and fuel specifications, it will be difficult for this surplus diesel to be delivered smoothly to the more tight East Coast and West Coast markets. Bloomberg intelligence estimates that before hitting the transportation bottleneck, oil storage facilities along the Gulf Coast could only absorb net diesel exports for about three weeks. Globally, the impact will be even more severe. Kpler pointed out that there is no real alternative source for the amount of diesel exported from the US, which makes Latin America and North-West Europe particularly vulnerable to shocks and intensifies competition for India's diesel resources. Refiners' responses will trigger a cycle of negative feedback. If profits are drastically compressed due to slow sales of diesel, refineries will be motivated to reduce operating rates and arrange equipment maintenance. S&P Global Energy estimates that crude oil processing may need to be reduced by nearly 2 million barrels per day to absorb excess inventories — more than 10% of current production.