US Stock Outlook | Futures of the three major stock indexes had mixed ups and downs, oil fell below $100 Meta (META.US) 2026 Developer Conference debuted this week

Pre-market market trends

1. Before the US stock market on September 22 (Tuesday), futures for the three major US stock indexes had mixed ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.41%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.10%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.02%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.44%, the British FTSE 100 index rose 0.03%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.43%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.35%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 2.67% to $89.90 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 2.16% to $98.17 per barrel.

Market news

The US and Iran sent a signal of contact, and Hormuz's open statement was denied. Iranian officials said that the delegation has been authorized to resume contacts with the US in New York through the mediator to discuss ending hostilities; if the US eases military pressure and lifts the port blockade, Iran can re-open the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days. The proposal was handed over to the US side on September 16. However, the Iranian media Fars News Agency denied reports about the opening of the strait. Also, US Secretary of State Rubio said he would like to meet with Iran at the UN, but there are no arrangements between Trump and the Iranian President. He said that about 60% to 70% of oil transportation has now resumed.

The Houthis warned that Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan could become (enemy) targets in the next phase. According to reports, Mohammed Farah, a member of the political office of the Houthis in Yemen, warned Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan that there is a plan aimed at dragging these countries into war and internal conflict, and that Saudi Arabia is playing a role in this process. He said that the enemy's attack on Iran will not be limited to Iran and may target Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan in the next step. Because these three countries have an important position in the Islamic world, their power and influence may be a barrier to the Israeli regime's related plans.

According to reports, Saudi Arabia has restarted the east-west oil pipeline and will resume oil exports from Yanbu. Saudi Arabia has restarted the operation of the east-west oil pipeline and is likely to resume oil exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu (Yanbu) later on Tuesday, according to three people familiar with the matter. Two of the sources said that the pipeline's current traffic volume is low.

Overwhelming interest rates and oil prices! Trump has become the biggest risk in the eyes of retail investors in US stocks. In recent weeks, the US market has been plagued by fluctuations. Behind it are a series of catalysts: the Federal Reserve raised key interest rates by 25 basis points, the US-Iran conflict boosted oil prices, and long-term bond yields soared. However, retail traders believe that the biggest threat to their portfolios comes from Trump's policies. A survey launched by Stocktwits aimed at understanding the biggest threat to investment portfolios in the eyes of retail investors showed that 41% of voters ranked Trump and political risk as the number one option. Interest rate risk ranked second with 23% of the vote. 21% of respondents voted for oil price fluctuations, while the remaining 14% believed that the biggest risk came from rising long-term yields on US Treasury bonds.

Strong demand for ASICs and CPUs! UBS raised its CoWoS industry production capacity forecast, which is expected to increase significantly compared to this year. Demand for cloud-based AI chips continues to explode. UBS's latest research raised the global CoWOS production capacity forecast to 270,000 pieces/month at the end of 2027, a sharp increase of about 69% from the end of 2026; total demand for the same year will nearly double to 2.63 million wafers. It is not only Nvidia (NVDA.US) that is driving this round of expansion; demand for ASICs and CPUs such as AMD (AMD.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), and OpenAI is fully rising.

Muse and Grok Bot are popular, and OpenAI will also join the “Personal Agent Battle.” SpaceX (SPCX.US) Grok Bot and Meta (META.US) Muse went online one after another, and the personal AI agent circuit suddenly heated up. According to reports, OpenAI is developing new features to directly target these two products, and plans to repackage and launch the existing agent technology, but the launch time is unclear. Although the current weekly active users of ChatGPT have exceeded 1 billion, growth has clearly slowed.

Individual stock news

The Meta 2026 Developer Conference debuts this week. Meta Connect 2026, Meta's most important product event of the year, will be held from September 23 to 24, local time (24-25 Beijing time). According to disclosed information, Zuckerberg will deliver a keynote speech on September 24 at 7 a.m. Beijing time, and a series of events for developers will be held the next day. This year's market focus includes next-generation smart glasses, lightweight mixed reality devices codenamed “Phoenix,” and how Meta's recently focused personal AI agent Muse can be further integrated into the wearable device ecosystem. Wells Fargo believes that Meta's recent model release and Muse's early performance gave the company “a story to tell” at this year's Connect conference.

Qualcomm (QCOM.US) Snapdragon Summit Preview: 2nm dual-core debuts, AI diversified narratives ushered in key verification. Qualcomm will usher in a time window closely watched by the market this week. The chipmaker is scheduled to host the annual Snapdragon Summit on Maui, Hawaii from September 22 to 24, local time. Investors are eager to capture the latest signals about next-generation processors and AI computing strategies.

AMD's market capitalization broke a trillion dollars for the first time! The Meta smart device boom ignites the CPU market. AMD surged nearly 10% on Monday, surpassing 1 trillion US dollars in market capitalization for the first time, becoming the fourth US chip company to join the “trillion dollar club”; Meta's AI agent Muse became popular, boosting market expectations for increasing demand for server CPUs, and driving chip stocks such as Intel and Arm to collectively soar. Jefferies analyst Jacky He said that as AI agents gain wider consumer adoption, higher AI reasoning, task orchestration, and infrastructure workloads are expected to drive server CPU demand growth.

Big tech companies' AI debt spree hits a wall: bond investors are starting to demand higher yields. Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Meta, and Nvidia are facing higher borrowing costs as the bond market adjusts debt issuance pricing to finance artificial intelligence infrastructure. Financial analyst Nicholas Mugalli said that Alphabet's credit spread widened by 15 basis points from 56 basis points to 71 basis points because the issuance scale increased from US$1.25 billion to US$3.5 billion. Meta and Nvidia also showed similar pricing trends, with the $4 billion bond issue widening spreads by 15 to 19 basis points.

Two tech giants “clash” over AI shopping! Amazon (AMZN.US) has banned Meta's Muse smart device. Amazon has blocked Meta's new artificial intelligence (AI) agent Muse from accessing its retail site. According to reports, since the evening of last Sunday local time, when users try to shop on Amazon through Muse, they will see a reminder that unauthorized AI agents continue to visit Amazon in violation of the terms of use. Amazon said it had previously asked Meta to take the initiative to exclude the Amazon e-commerce site from the scope of Muse's services, but negotiations were unsuccessful.

Xiaomo tracks Apple (AAPL.US) supply: demand for the iPhone 18 Pro series is strong, and the delivery cycle is rapidly extended. J.P. Morgan Chase released a research report saying that in the 2nd week of the bank's tracking of the supply of Apple products, the delivery cycle was further extended, and the iPhone 18 Pro series increased by an average of 4 days. Compared to week 1, the iPhone 18 Pro delivery cycle increased by 16 days (the iPhone 17 Pro delivery cycle increased by 9 days from week 1 to week 2 last year), and the iPhone 18 Pro Max delivery cycle increased by 11 days (the iPhone 17 Pro Max delivery cycle increased by 7 days from week 1 to week 2 in the same period last year).

Alibaba Cloud's data center will exceed 20GW in 2032. On September 22, Alibaba (BABA.US) CEO Wu Yongming said at the Yunqi conference that current customer demand for AI is very strong and will fully invest in AI infrastructure construction. The goal is to exceed 20GW of global data centers operated by Alibaba Cloud by 2032. On the same day, Pingtou released the most powerful domestic AI chip, the Zhenwu V900, and the computing power increased to 3 times that of the Zhenwu M890. According to reports, the annual shipment volume of Pingtouge AI chips will increase dramatically.

Key economic data and event forecasts

20:15 Beijing time: The US ADP employment week announced changes for the week ending September 5.

22:05 Beijing time: FOMC Permanent Ticket Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams delivered a speech at the 2026 US bond market conference.

22:20 Beijing time: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson delivered a speech at the 2026 US bond market conference.

At 01:00 Beijing time the next day: 2027 FOMC voting committee and Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin delivered a speech.

04:30 Beijing time the next day: Changes in US API crude oil inventories for the week ending September 18.