Social Security Boost Could be Coming in 2027 — Forecasts Put COLA in the Mid-3% Range But One Inflation Report Remains

New estimates following August CPI-W data are putting the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in the mid-3% range, with September inflation now the final missing piece before the official adjustment is announced.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the CPI-W rose 3.5% over the 12 months through August. Social Security’s annual COLA is calculated using July, August, and September CPI-W data, with the final adjustment to be announced after September inflation data is released Oct. 14, according to the Social Security Administration.

AARP Forecast

AARP is projecting a 3.6% COLA for 2027 based on recent inflation readings and September projections.

Rich Johnson, vice president of financial security at the AARP Public Policy Institute, said, "With only one month of inflation data to go until the 2027 COLA is finalized, there’s less uncertainty about what that increase will be. Unless prices change dramatically in September, we’re confident that the COLA will be in the mid-3 percent range."

TSCL Estimate

The Senior Citizens League is projecting a 3.5% COLA, down from its previous estimate of 3.6%.

"The biggest thing we’re watching with the COLA announcement coming are short-term shocks to the economy that push inflation way up or down in the next 30 days," TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said.

Earlier estimates had AARP at 3.5% and the Senior Citizens League at 3.6%, before the August CPI-W reading updated the forecasts.

CRFB Projection

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates a 3.4% COLA for 2027, reported Fox Business on Monday.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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