Bitcoin Trails Nasdaq This Year: Why One Analyst Calls It ‘Helpful’

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trades down around 7% on the year while the Nasdaq climbs 14%, and macro investor Dave Weisberger says that gap is exactly what a healthy setup looks like.

• How is Bitcoin doing today?

Why the Underperformance Is a Good Sign

Weisberger told The Wolf of All Streets Macro Monday panel that Bitcoin lagging the Nasdaq right now separates genuine long-term holders from short-term speculators. 

People still holding through this stretch are betting on dollar depreciation playing out over time, not chasing quick gains. 

Once that cycle turns, he expects Bitcoin to outperform the metrics most of the crypto community tracks, leaving real room to run before the asset even approaches its $126,000 all-time high, a level still roughly 40% above current prices.

Where the Bull and Bear Cases Clash

Bloomberg macro strategist Mike McGlone and Weisberger sparred over how to value Bitcoin from here:

• McGlone’s case — Bitcoin divided by the Nasdaq total return sits at the same level it traded in 2017. Same performance over eight years while carrying two to three times the volatility makes it a weak risk-adjusted bet next to simply picking Nasdaq stocks. He also flagged that Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average, divided by the State Street SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), has dropped below it for only the second time since 2022.
• Weisberger’s case — McGlone’s framework ignores adoption entirely. Every Bitcoin adoption metric keeps climbing, and by that model fair value sits between $105,000 and $155,000, well above current levels. Ignoring adoption while looking only at price charts, he argued, is like ignoring corporate earnings while looking only at stock charts.

Why the Clarity Act’s Failure May Not Matter

Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir noted that seven Democrats who initially voted no on the Clarity Act quickly signaled openness to revisiting it, a sign they realized blocking the bill freed regulators to move faster rather than slower. 

Weisberger agreed, arguing the failure hands the SEC and CFTC more room to advance crypto rulemaking independently over the next two years, particularly around Bitcoin’s use as collateral within the traditional financial system.

What the Fed Decision Means Going Forward

Tchir said he is adding to his Bitcoin position rather than selling, expecting a run back toward $100,000 as momentum builds. 

He pointed to growing interest in agentic AI and its potential use of crypto rails for moving money as a fresh catalyst separate from the regulatory debate. 

McGlone maintained his preference for shorting Bitcoin rallies, arguing the asset still trades more like a risk proxy tied to the broader stock market than an independent store of value.

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