Grayscale Says Rate Hike Is 'Unlikely to Drive Major Shifts' In Bitcoin

Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl told clients Thursday that the Fed’s 25-basis-point hike is unlikely to move crypto markets much, calling it a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a shift in policy direction.

Why Pandl Isn’t Worried About the Hike

Pandl wrote in a note published Thursday that Wednesday’s move to a 3.75% to 4% target range differs fundamentally from the Fed’s 2022 tightening cycle. Two cycles, two very different outcomes for crypto:

Cycle	Magnitude	Impact on Bitcoin
March 2022–July 2023	+550 basis points	Weighed heavily on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), raised opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets
September 2026	+25 basis points	One-off adjustment, minimal expected impact

Pandl drew a direct historical parallel to March 1997, when the Greenspan Fed delivered a similar mid-cycle hike and the Nasdaq bull market kept running afterward. 

He expects the one or two additional hikes still possible in 2026 to have a similarly limited effect on capital allocation into digital assets.

Where Higher Rates Could Actually Matter

Not all of crypto is equally exposed to rate policy, Pandl noted. Two areas stand out:

• Stablecoin issuers — Circle (NYSE:CRCL) and Tether (CRYPTO: USDT) earn higher revenue as cash rates rise, since reserves sit in short-term Treasuries and money market instruments
• Tokenized bonds and money market funds — higher yields on these products could pull more capital on-chain as they become more attractive relative to holding cash off-chain

His broader point: crypto is not one monolithic asset class, and rate policy hits different corners of it differently, much like it does across traditional finance.

How This Builds on Grayscale’s Bottom Call

As Benzinga reported Thursday, Pandl told The Block at Avalanche Summit in New York that Bitcoin’s roughly $58,000 low from late June marked the bottom of the current cycle, giving Grayscale clients a green light to allocate. 

He also flagged Zcash (CRYPTO: ZEC) as a separate thesis built around the privacy layer Bitcoin lacks, arguing growing AI capability and data exposure make that theme increasingly relevant.

Thursday’s note extends that same conviction through the Fed decision. Pandl is treating the rate hike as background noise rather than a reason to revise the bottom call, keeping Grayscale’s institutional stance intact even as the Clarity Act’s failure and the rate hike hit crypto sentiment in the same week.

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