Hedging weakens Bitcoin or hypergold, triple the scale theory

According to Woofun AI, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.US) (NYSE: JPM) released a macro analysis on Thursday, indicating that if market hedging operations weaken, Bitcoin's relative performance will surpass gold. This view resonates with Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas's long-term predictions, who believe that Bitcoin ETF assets could eventually triple the size of gold as institutional acceptance deepens.

Judging from the structured comparison between capital flows and market sentiment, the differences are significant. The JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) analysis team, led by Nikolaos Panigirzoglu, pointed out that gold ETFs have completely repaired the outflows that occurred in 2026, while Bitcoin ETFs have only recovered about half. The momentum of “depreciation transactions” that drove the inflow of two types of assets after the July Federal Reserve meeting weakened in the past week due to rising inflation-adjusted bond yields and the failure to pass the Clarity Act in the US Senate.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the shorting ratio of iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.US) (NASDAQ: IBIT) under BlackRock (BLK: BLK) rose to the highest level this year, while the SPDR gold share ETF (GLD.US) (NYSE: GLD) shorting ratio was lower than the historical average. The ratio of IBIT (IBIT.US) put options to call options is higher than that of GLD (GLD.US), confirming that the market has stronger demand for Bitcoin hedging and is more cautious. Analysts emphasized that if hedging demand falls, Bitcoin will get more support.

On a long-term logical level, intergenerational wealth transfer and volatility convergence are key variables. Eric Balciunas discussed in the X platform video that as the next generation of wealth inherits and Bitcoin's volatility declines, institutional investor acceptance will increase, and Bitcoin ETFs will eventually triple the size of gold. He pointed out that while the younger generation sees Bitcoin as a store of value, the current high volatility and similar trends to the Nasdaq 100 Index make large institutions still favor gold. As volatility and equity correlation declines, a turning point will be reached, and Bitcoin will be viewed as a reliable store of value and a safe haven asset. ' Bitcoin is like gold in adolescence. 'Balchunas metaphorically said, 'Gold has a history of 5,000 years, and Bitcoin is only 17 years old.' J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.US) data added that demand for Bitcoin ETFs fell more than gold in the past week, which means there is more room for a rebound when sentiment improves. The two asset futures positions remained high, indicating that institutional investors did not withdraw their capital. Image source: Shutterstock.

In terms of price forecasting, supply scarcity and adoption rates form intrinsic drivers. Mark Yusko believes that the scarcity of supply brought about by the halving mechanism and the growing adoption rate support the price increase, and the current price of Bitcoin at around $75,000 is undervalued. October 5 is considered a key point, and the market may verify this logic at this point.