According to the CITIC Construction Investment Research Report, the policy path, the probability of raising interest rates twice during the year is not low, and there is still great uncertainty next year. Walsh is moving towards preventing inflation across the board, and officials are strongly inclined to continue to increase it. It is very difficult to change this narrative of austerity in the short term; strong macroeconomic changes and data support are needed. However, the general direction of 2027 still needs to be observed, and there are variables such as economic data and working group conclusions. The market is cautious in the short term, and the probability of collective retracement or structural differentiation of major assets has surged. The bullish market has generally risen in the past 3 years, and is at risk of ending. ① The macro environment is unfriendly, the K-type economy, the AI narrative is slowing down, high interest rates are suppressing, and asset prices are all at historically high levels, making it difficult to break out of the trend. ② In the past 3 years, US stocks, industrial products, and precious metals have collectively surged. The Federal Reserve's easing cycle was a major background. As interest rate cuts ended and interest rate hikes resumed, various types of assets changed from smooth wind to headwind, and the basis for general growth loosened. It is recommended to wait for a round of decline before taking the opportunity to step in.

According to the CITIC Construction Investment Research Report, the policy path, the probability of raising interest rates twice during the year is not low, and there is still great uncertainty next year. Walsh is moving towards preventing inflation across the board, and officials are strongly inclined to continue to increase it. It is very difficult to change this narrative of austerity in the short term; strong macroeconomic changes and data support are needed. However, the general direction of 2027 still needs to be observed, and there are variables such as economic data and working group conclusions. The market is cautious in the short term, and the probability of collective retracement or structural differentiation of major assets has surged. The bullish market has generally risen in the past 3 years, and is at risk of ending. ① The macro environment is unfriendly, the K-type economy, the AI narrative is slowing down, high interest rates are suppressing, and asset prices are all at historically high levels, making it difficult to break out of the trend. ② In the past 3 years, US stocks, industrial products, and precious metals have collectively surged. The Federal Reserve's easing cycle was a major background. As interest rate cuts ended and interest rate hikes resumed, various types of assets changed from smooth wind to headwind, and the basis for general growth loosened. It is recommended to wait for a round of decline before taking the opportunity to step in.