According to the Huatai Securities Research Report, the Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% as scheduled. The 12 voting committees all supported this rate hike. The bitmap and SEP both showed that the Federal Reserve's internal structure was more hawkish overall. Walsh claimed that this rate hike was a “dose of easing” from monetary policy. Looking ahead, the Fed's September rate hike came into effect. December may be the real game period for the next rate hike, and more data and official statements are still needed to determine whether the Fed will start the rate hike cycle. Currently, the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in October is over 50%, but Huatai Securities believes that the fiscal pulse is falling, oil prices are eroding consumer consumption, and financial conditions are tightening. Employment and inflation data may cool down in the next 1-2 months, the need for the Fed to raise interest rates in October is expected to be the benchmark situation, and the path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in 2027 depends on subsequent economic data performance, especially whether the job market will continue to improve, thereby driving up wage growth and the trend of inflation.

According to the Huatai Securities Research Report, the Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% as scheduled. The 12 voting committees all supported this rate hike. The bitmap and SEP both showed that the Federal Reserve's internal structure was more hawkish overall. Walsh claimed that this rate hike was a “dose of easing” from monetary policy. Looking ahead, the Fed's September rate hike came into effect. December may be the real game period for the next rate hike, and more data and official statements are still needed to determine whether the Fed will start the rate hike cycle. Currently, the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in October is over 50%, but Huatai Securities believes that the fiscal pulse is falling, oil prices are eroding consumer consumption, and financial conditions are tightening. Employment and inflation data may cool down in the next 1-2 months, the need for the Fed to raise interest rates in October is expected to be the benchmark situation, and the path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in 2027 depends on subsequent economic data performance, especially whether the job market will continue to improve, thereby driving up wage growth and the trend of inflation.